Save Jersey Polling Average: Sherrill +5 Points

Update 9/8/25 @ 5:30 PM EST

Notes:

We won’t include a campaign internal poll in the average. Because they’re inherently unreliable? No, quite the opposite; simply because the respective campaigns have an incentive to show their respective candidates in the best possible light and, normally, they’ll cancel out. We also reserve the right to exclude a pollster that’s methodology is so wacky, and/or it’s motivations are so suspect, that it’s inclusion is guaranteed to skew the results (here’s looking at you, Eagleton hacks).

Let’s also state what should be obvious: polls are ONE measure of the state of a race. They’re snapshots (at best). It’s very likely that the final average won’t match the final result of the governor’s race. What you should be looking for: trends and the overall competitiveness of the contest. Republicans boast the “low propensity” coalition in 2025. If Jack is close when early voting starts? And his ground game is strong? You get the point.

So, as we sit here at the beginning of ~~August~~ September with ~~three~~ two months left to go in the gubernatorial contest, Jack Ciattarelli trails Mikie Sherrill in our average by a little more than 5-points…