By Matt Rooney
The polls are pretty split at the moment, Save Jerseyans.
A few (including our own) show a true or statistical tie, and a few others including Wednesday’s few Quinnipiac results report a relatively modest mid-single digit lead for Mikie Sherrill. The only thing that’s certain: someone is going to be very wrong come November 5th!
But there is a common thread. Specifically, the enthusiasm gap bedeviling the Democrat nominee’s campaign.
Take the Q poll which found Jack Ciattarelli trailing by 6-points but 55% of the GOP nominee’s voters “very enthusiastic” to vote for their candidate. Only 42% of Sherrill voters feel the same way.
Similarly, Fox News (which showed Ciattarelli trailing by 8-points, the outlier at the moment) nevertheless also found Ciattarelli nursing an 8-point enthusiasm advantage (again, only 42% of Sherrill voters were excited relative to 50% of Ciattarelli voters).
“The raucous debates are done, the attack ads are everywhere, and the race is close, with Sherrill holding a slight advantage,” Quinnipiac’s Tim Malloy explained after his organization’s survey’s release. “As the clock ticks down to Election Day, voter enthusiasm will translate into turnout. For the moment, in that category, Ciattarelli has an edge.”
Meanwhile, the tied Neighborhood Research Poll (44% to 44%) found Jack winning those “definitely” voting by 4-points.
It’s not just the “enthusiasm” polling data. As of Wednesday morning, Republicans were running about +5 in vote-by-mail compared to Election 2024.
So yeah, Mikie Sherrill has a real base problem. There’s a reason why the DGA is talking about abortion at the 11th hour instead of taxes. Winning polls by 2-points or 8-points is lovely. If your supporters aren’t overly jazzed about showing up on Election Day or filling out their mail-in ballots? Those polls might not be worth very much.
