By Matt Rooney
Things are getting a little spooky for Team Sherrill heading into the final weekend of Election 2025, Save Jerseyans.
Here’s the October 30th hit list:
(1) A new Emerson Poll shows Mikie Sherrill leading well within the margin of error, 48% to 47%. That’s a jump ball which will be decided on Election Day or later, Save Jerseyans. And it gets worse from there for the Democrat nominee. The GOP nominee’s favorability rating (48%) is slightly ahead of Sherrill’s own (47%). Perhaps even more tellingly, President Trump (45%) boasts a far superior job approval rating to the outgoing Governor Phil Murphy (34%). On the issue front, the economy (52%) dominates voters’ lists of concerns while perceived threats to democracy (14%) and housing affordability (11%) distantly register. Click here to view the full survey report.
(2) Sherill’s lead is slightly larger in a brand new Suffolk Poll (46% to 42%), but the large number of undecided voters and Sherrill’s relatively low ceiling in the mid-40s is giving educated observers serious 2016 vibes. Even more concerning for Mikie Sherrill? Suffolk polled Bergen County specifically, and she’s ahead there by a single point, 43% to 42%. Jack lost Bergen by almost 6 points in 2021 when he fell short statewide by 3 points. Click here to view the full survey report.
(3) There’s a SoCal poll out which shows a modest Sherrill lead, but that’s not what has people talking. In a hypothetical 2028 matchup, Gavin Newsom leads Vice President JD Vance by ONE POINT in the Garden State. Joe Biden carried New Jersey by 16 points in 2020. Harris? By less than 6 in 2024. SoCal is hardly a gold standard poll (but what is in 2025?), but this could be one more data point confirming that New Jersey is officially a “purple state.”
Go forth and vote like Jack is down 10! This one counts, and it’s winnable.
