It might be, Save Jerseyans.
Reports of Democrat panic are not overstated.
The latest vote by mail data in New Jersey’s Election 2025 suggests that Democrats are currently lagging behind their
“firewall”; it’s the percentage lead they’ll likely need to establish prior to the end of the “early voting” period to overcome a strong GOP turnout on Election Day.
Quantus Insights crunched the latest numbers – as of Friday 10/3 – and found that Democrats are currently hovering around 38%…
42% Dem Firewall is based on historical NJ mail dominance (64.8% in ’21) adjusted for today’s 62.3% (down 2.5 pts from ’24). Baseline for early vote lead to counter GOP E-Day, per voter file models.
— Quantus Insights (@QuantusInsights) October 3, 2025
I think we’ll know more, specifically whether this is a temporary blip or a real trend, by this Friday (10/10).
The New Jersey Vote By Mail file is in for 10/03.
Republicans inched their return rate lead up by six basis points yesterday, while Democrats picked up more than 11,000 raw votes.
Republican Return Rate – 18.61%
Democratic Return Rate – 16.55%
DEM Raw Vote Edge – 53,319… pic.twitter.com/XSqYJgOwu5— Michael Pruser (@MichaelPruser) October 3, 2025
