Update 10/16/25 @ 10:25 PM EST
The race for New Jersey governor is down to its final 2.5 weeks, Save Jerseyans, and its objectively very close? 5 of 7 recent surveys in our average (see below) show an outright or statistical tie. Only two show the contest to succeed Phil Murphy outside of the margin of error and not by very much.
The consensus is now firmly settled in the mid to low single-digit range, and all of the recent polls show tightening (Fox’s latest survey shows Jack surging 3-points in a mere matter of days).
Remember: polls, at best, are snapshots in time. Differing methodologies also play a role, and the process is all the more challenging in newly-purple New Jersey where there isn’t a large body of reliable polling in recent history due to the state’s historical blue bent.
It’s best to view polls as ONE measure of where the race stands as opposed to a definitive measure of the state of play…
| Polling Org. | Date Range |
Sherrill (D)
|
Ciattarelli (R)
|
Diff. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fox News | 10/10 – 10/14 | 50% | 45% |
+5
|
| Insider Advantage | 10/14 – 10/15 | 45% | 44% |
Tie
|
| Neighborhood Research | 10/6 – 10/9 | 44% | 44% |
Tie
|
| Rasmussen Reports | 10/8 – 10/9 | 46% | 40% |
Sherrill +6
|
| Quantus Insights | 9/29 – 9/30 | 48% | 46% |
Sherrill +2
|
| Save Jersey/Valcour | 9/23 – 9/24 | 47% | 45% |
Sherrill +2
|
| Emerson | 9/22 – 9/23 | 43% | 43% |
Tie
|
| Average | 46.14 |
43.86 Sherrill+2
|
