Update 10/28/25 @ 6:30PM EST
The race for New Jersey governor is down to its final week, Save Jerseyans, and its objectively very close? 5 of 7 recent surveys in our average (see below) show an outright or statistical tie (inside the margin of error). Only two show the contest to succeed Phil Murphy outside of the margin of error and not by very much aside from Rasmussen Reports (whose data is now a few weeks old).
The consensus is now firmly settled in the low single-digit range, and all of the recent polls show tightening.
Remember: polls, at best, are snapshots in time. Differing methodologies also play a role, and the process is all the more challenging in newly-purple New Jersey where there isn’t a large body of reliable polling in recent history due to the state’s historical blue bent. We also don’t include Quinnipiac or Rutgers Eagleton in our average because their respective track records are abysmal. For example, Rutgers missed the final 2024 result (N.J. presidential) by 14 points…
Ultimately, it’s best to view polls as ONE measure of where the race stands as opposed to a definitive measure of the state of play:
| Polling Org. | Date Range |
Sherrill (D)
|
Ciattarelli (R)
|
Diff. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quantus Insights | 10/26 – 10/27 | 49% | 46% |
Sherrill +3
|
| co/efficient | 10/23 – 10/27 | 48% | 47% |
Sherrill +1
|
| Insider Advantage | 10/14 – 10/15 | 45% | 44% |
Tie
|
| Fox News | 10/14 – 10/15 | 50 | 45% |
Sherrill +5
|
| Neighborhood Research | 10/6 – 10/9 | 44% | 44% |
Tie
|
| Rasmussen Reports | 10/8 – 10/9 | 46% | 40% |
Sherrill +6
|
| Save Jersey/Valcour | 9/23 – 9/24 | 47% | 45% |
Sherrill +2
|
| Emerson | 9/22 – 9/23 | 43% | 43% |
Tie
|
| Average | Sherrill 46.5% |
Ciattarelli 44.25% Sherrill+2.25
|
