If a new GOP-commissioned poll is accurate? The 2021 legislative picture for Republicans might be as rosy as its been in years.
The likely voter survey conducted by 3D Strategic Research found Republican Joe Lukac leading Democrat incumbent Roy Frieman by 2-points, 35% to 33%, in the race for first position in the LD16 Assembly contest. Republican Vinnie Panico is actually tied with Frieman at 33%, and Democrat candidate Sadaf Jaffer trails in fourth place with 29%.
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A poll by the same outfit released last week showed LD16 GOP Senate nominee Michael Pappas leading Assemblyman Andrew Zwicker (D-South Brunswick) tied at 44% a piece in the race to succeed retiring liberal Republican Kip Bateman.
What’s significant about the poll, Save Jerseyans, is that we’re once again seeing anecdotal evidence of New Jersey Democrat weakness with unaffiliated voters.
“It is not just the state assembly race that is competitive, but the generic state legislative ballot shows
voters evenly divided between a Republican and Democratic candidate at 46% each,” explained David Kanevsky in his memo to the New Jersey Senate Republican Campaign Committee which was shared with Save Jersey. “The gubernatorial race is also close with 43% voting for Republican Jack Ciattarelli and 44% voting for Democrat Phil Murphy and the state senate race is tied with Republican Mike Pappas and Demcorat Andrew Zwicker both getting 44% of the vote.”
“The Republican candidates for governor, state senate and state assembly are overcoming the Democratic registration advantage in this district because they are winning Unaffiliated voters by
between 14% and 20%” added Kanevsky. “Unaffiliated voters in this district are looking for a change from Democratic control in Trenton as a majority (52%) think the state is off on the wrong track and 51% are unfavorable to Governor Murphy.”
We’ve had two gubernatorial state-wide polls so far this cycle, one from Rutgers and the other from FDU, both of which found Governor Murphy upside down with independents.
Murphy might be able to get away with losing indies since Democrats now have a 1+ million statewide voter registration advantage.
Local and legislative Dems might have a much more difficult time surviving if non-partisan voters break this heavily Republican in November.
LD16 includes the Hunterdon County towns of Delaware Township, Flemington Borough, Raritan Township, Readington Township and Stockton Borough, the Somerset County communities of Branchburg Borough, Hillsborough Township, Manville Borough, Millstone Borough, Montgomery Township, Rocky Hill Borough and Somerville Borough, the Mercer County municipality of Princeton, and the Middlesex County outpost of South Brunswick Township,
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