Everyone is buzzing about how *close* New Jersey was this year. A 5.9% loss for a Republican in the Garden State – which hasn’t gone “red” since 1988 and voted for Joe Biden by 16-points in 2020 – is nothing short of seismic.
What happened? And how?
I’ve know Tim Saler (the Trump campaign’s 2024 Chief Data Consultant) for nearly two decades, Save Jerseyans. He’s a South Jersey native who cut his teeth running campaigns in blue and purple regions of our home state, so unlike most national consultants, he’s not engaging in hypotheticals when he analyzes New Jersey’s rightward shift.
On Tuesday, Tim shared some of the important takeaway numbers which explain what happened in N.J. year over on X…
New Jersey vote history is in.
A brief on how President Trump closed the gap by 10 points in my home state since 2020, received the most votes for a Republican presidential candidate in history & what that means for NJ as a battleground moving forward.
— Tim Saler (@salerGT) December 3, 2024
Turnout advantage among Hispanic voters, by vote propensity:
High: R+2
Mid: R+5
Low: R+9Turnout advantage among Asian voters, by vote propensity:
High: R+1
Mid: R+4
Low: R+3— Tim Saler (@salerGT) December 3, 2024
According to FOX News Voter Analysis, President Trump won:
Union households: Trump +10
Men: Trump +6
Men aged 18-44: Trump +12
High school grads: Trump +10
Non-college men: Trump +20
Catholics: Trump +16— Tim Saler (@salerGT) December 3, 2024
The biggest, broadest & most diverse coalition in modern American political history: MAGA!
— Tim Saler (@salerGT) December 3, 2024
