How close in the June 10th Republican Primary? With less than two months left to go?
Not very assuming you’re relying upon the traditional metrics like fundraising and polling, Save Jerseyans. The 2021 nominee Jack Ciattarelli long ago hit ELEC’s $5.5 million cap for matching funds; ex-NJ 101.5 host Bill Spadea just received his first disbursement at the beginning of April totaling $1,535,597. That’s a massive spending gap with only several weeks left to campaign and mail-in ballots set to be mailed out far sooner.
We’ve also yet to see a poll with Spadea competitive statewide let alone in the lead. The closest thing was a December 2024 poll commissioned by Spadea’s campaign showing the candidate statistically tied in Monmouth County and ahead in Ocean County, the heart of his former listening region, but trailing in populous Morris County. About one month later, Emerson/The Hill dropped results showing Ciattarelli up by double digits.
The latest numbers come from another internal poll (this time from Ciattarelli’s pollster, Adam Geller’s National Research Inc.), showing Ciattarelli up 28-points over Spadea – a 9-point gain over his opponent since February…
The two most important findings?
- “By 46%-25%, Jack is seen as more pro-Trump than Spadea. Jack led Spadea 29%-22% on this metric in our February survey.”
- “Jack leads Spadea 59%-19% as ‘having the best chance to win the general.’ In our February poll Jack led 46%-19%.”
So to summarize, voters think Jack is Trumpier and more likely to win in November. That’s an objectively tough hurdle for any other Republican hopeful to overcome with the time remaining and in light of Team Ciattarelli’s significant cash advantage.
Keep your panties on, Spadea fans.
Your guy isn’t out of the fight. Not yet.
The polling could hypothetically be missing something. It’s happened before, famously and recently. Strange things also happen in relatively low turnout cycles because it can be harder to handicap who, precisely, is showing up and who isn’t interested in a non-federal cycle. Jon Bramick won’t win the nomination, but he could play a spoiler role and siphon more support for Ciattarelli than the surveys are discovering thanks to a well-financed and relentless direct mail campaign. But while it’s not unusual for many of the polls to be wrong (2016 and 2024), it’s admittedly rare for ALL of the polls to be wrong (2020). We’ll see soon enough.
What Team Spadea knows is its candidate’s best hope: a Trump endorsement. Trump lavished praise on Spadea during a spring 2024 appearance on his radio show but that encounter appears to have been the high water mark of their relationship to date. Recent events don’t suggest that a formal blessing of Spadea is coming (e.g. Jack was received at Bedminster for a sitdown and a photo last month while Spadea got a hallway handshake), but anyone who’s observed President Trump navigate primaries is well aware that only POTUS knows what POTUS is going to do, and sometimes, not until right when the decision is confirmed.
The bottom line: the 2025 GOP gubernatorial primary looks and feels less-than-competitive as we sit here today. President Trump could change that, especially if an endorsement arrived with enough time for Spadea to monetize it. Barring a White House embrace, however, the odds aren’t trending positively for Republican candidates not named Jack.
