Primary Day is a bit of a misnomar in the age of early voting, Save Jerseyans. Nearly half of a million New Jerseyans will have cast ballots BEFORE Tuesday, June 10th. Only 339,033 voted in the entire GOP primary four years ago! Post-Covid, Election Day is really “decision deadline day” and, at least most of the time, “results day.” Perhaps a change in branding is in order?
In any event… what are some of the things that I’m watching for today and tonight?
And hope to answer once the dust begins to settle?
Here’s a very partial list:
(#1) Assuming there isn’t an upset, can Ciattarelli top 50%?
The 2021 nominee (arguably) didn’t face quite as robust of a challenge last time around, and he finished up with 49.46% of the primary vote. Assuming he wins the nomination again as the polling and other available indicators suggest, can Ciattarelli do it by crossing the previously elusive 50% threshold? The Ciattarelli campaign would certainly like to send a statement to donors and the Democrats with a decisive win. For the sake of a party unity, winning “big” could also help Ciattarelli bring the party back together quicker than a close finish unresolved until the early hours of Wednesday morning might.
(#2) If Ciattarelli triumphs, who finishes second in the GOP primary?
The smart money is on Bill Spadea, the former NJ 101.5 host who has the backing of the Ocean County Republican organization. His supporters – some of whom listened to him daily for many years – are enthusiastic and loyal (and, if we’re being honest, sometimes a bit defensive of their guy on social media). Yet I’ve observed something anecdotal, sure, but also possibly highly significant: Spadea’s name recognition appears to drop off dramatically outside of the core Central Jersey NJ 101.5 coverage area. We’ve seen it in the public polling. One candidate running outside of the NJ 101.5 region told me that his late May/early June internal polling found Spadea actually running third in a relatively red legislative district behind both Ciattarelli and Jon Bramnick who, uncoincidentally, raised more money than Spadea and dropped a small mountain of mailers on registered Republicans (personally, I think I’ve received just one Spadea mailer and at least eight Bramnick mailers during the primary season).
So could we see a repeat of 2021 when Philip Rizzo and Hirsh Singh waged a very close battle for distant second behind Jack? Or will one of these guys surprise us all and catch Jack Ciattarelli and the entire political world by surprise? I’m very curious to find out… not just who wins, but also the positions of each horse as they cross the finish line.
(#3) Did the death of the line hobble New Jersey’s legendary machines?
This is the first statewide primary where neither major party is running with “lines,” the process by which county party-endorsed candidates would appear in one vertical column bracketed together. Will it matter? The 2024 experiment on the Democrat side of the aisle proved a bit of a mixed bag; Andy Kim overcame the establishment and won a U.S. Senate nomination without the bosses, but down ballot in contested House and county races, organizational muscle continued to prove an overall difference maker. On the Democrat side, a Fulop upset in the gubernatorial race would suggest that Andy Kim wasn’t a fluke and the machines have lost some of their potency without a built-in ballot advantage. On the GOP side, watch Monmouth and Ocean counties very closely. Monmouth’s GOP is pro-Ciattarelli and Ocean’s organization is pro-Spadea. Both counties are situated almost entirely inside of the core NJ 101.5 listening area. Spadea recruited affiliated candidates in Monmouth; Ciattarelli barnstormed all over Ocean with anti-Gilmore rebels. Watch the results in each county for clues as to the strength of post-line political organizations on the Republican side.
(#4) The Second Battle of Monmouth.
Where’s Molly Pitcher when you need her? Shaun Golden’s Republican organization is facing primaries at the county and legislative (LD13) levels this year. That’s because Monmouth is a key battleground in the NJ 101.5 listening area (see above) and, since this is politics and everything is personal, there’s no love lost between Golden and his allies in the one corner and Bill Spadea and his principal backer, Ocean County GOP Chairman George Gilmore. If Spadea is going to have a shot at an upset this evening? He likely needs to carry vote-rich Monmouth, and probably decisively, which could theoretically reverberate down ballot. If Golden and his team hold the line? Spadea is almost certainly cooked.
(#5) The Assembly race most likely to produce a surprise.
I’m not saying it will… just that if you see an incumbent go down, it’d probably be here. The most competitive legislative contest on the Republican side tonight is in suburban Bergen County where former congressional candidate and financial industry veteran Frank Pallotta of Mahwah is challenging the incumbents, Bob Auth and John Azzariti. Having seemingly learned from errors of campaigns past, Pallotta is playing for keeps this spring and spending money; state Senator Holly Schepisi and most of the organizational GOP is working for the incumbents. This isn’t really an ideological contest so much as a barometer of the local political environment in New Jersey’s most populous county.
(#6) Turnout as a measure of GOP enthusiasm.
Republicans need a big turnout in November to defeat the Democrats who still boast a better than 800,000 statewide voter registration edge. As of the end of early voting on Sunday, approximately, 30,000 more Democrats had voted than Republicans. That’s not necessarily a reason for alarm because the Democrat primary field is larger and the race is widely seen as more competitive. But Republicans (and others) will obviously be watching the tea leaves on Tuesday night to see if the base’s warming to early voting in 2024 is continuing on its own or needs major some help heading into the fall.
(#7) Steve Sweeney’s performance in South Jersey.
A continuation from item #3 above… the state’s most iconic Democrat machines belongs to George Norcross III who just defeated a criminal prosecution launched by the Democrat attorney general (though Platkin is appealing). While the South Jersey Machine remains formidable, there’s no doubt that the state party’s “progressive” shift and the reddening of South Jersey’s coastal and interior areas have put the once seemingly unbeatable organization on its heels. The recent victory of two non-machine political neophytes in hyper-woke Collingswood is only the latest sign of trouble behind Machine lines. That brings us to today when Norcross arch-lieutenant Steve Sweeney, an ironworker and former Senate President, is struggling to mount a comeback as a gubernatorial candidate. In 2008, Rob Andrews lost (badly) to Frank Lautenberg statewide but carried every South Jersey counties. Few observers likewise believe Sweeney can win a statewide primary this year, but the more important question may be whether he can even win in South Jersey like Andrews did? Watch his performance in Camden, Atlantic, and Gloucester counties for clues. Camden may be particularly instructive where there are a number of larger, wealthy woke suburbs and Sweeney has never been on the ballot.
