Someone Has to Be Wrong: The GOP Iowa Caucus Poll of Polls

November 17, 2011 Brian McGovern Uncategorized 4

Today a new poll of likely Iowa caucus voters was released by Rasmussen Reports. The results of this poll came in with a stark contrast to the results reported by Bloomberg earlier this week. Now, I understand that polls are merely a snapshot in time (even though we’ve gone to this awkward practice of polling for days at a time and aggregating the results, but that is a rant for another day), but not that much time has passed between the actual tallying of these polls to explain a gap this wide in the results.

The Bloomberg poll had the top four candidates as follows:

  1. Herman Cain – 20%
  2. Ron Paul – 19%
  3. Mitt Romney – 18%
  4. Newt Gingrich – 17%

And the latest poll from Rasmussen is claiming the order to be somewhat different:

  1. New Gingrich – 32%
  2. Mitt Romney – 19%
  3. Herman Cain – 13% (he was in the lead in the last Rasmussen Poll)
  4. Ron Paul – 10%

There are always going to be differences in polls. Samples vary, margins of error vary, news of the day might drop a candidate into Bachmann territory in the blink of an eye, but this just seems bizarre. A fifteen point swing for New Gingrich makes absolutely no sense. Ron Paul going from 1/5th of the vote to 1/10th is equally puzzling. The only real consistency seems to be that Mitt Romney cannot breach 20% in Iowa, which is not surprising considering the fact that he has concentrated most of his resources on actual primary states thus far, and as a result is leading in New Hampshire with close to 40% support.

So Save Jerseyans, who do you believe? Which polling firm is closer to the truth? Bloomberg vs. Rasmussen. Fight!

Which Poll Tells the Truth?:
 Bloomberg
 Rasmussen
 Neither, they both stink
 Ron Paul


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Brian McGovern
About Brian McGovern 748 Articles
Brian McGovern wears many hats these days including Voorhees Township GOP Municipal Chairman, South Jersey attorney, and co-owner of the Republican campaign consulting firm Exit 3 Strategies, Inc.

4 Comments

  1. Brian, your strategy of making "Ron Paul" a response in every single poll just to lure crazy Paul-zombies from every corner of the internet it not working. Please give it up.

  3. Ron Paul's my choice for the nomination, but notice how I control myself and not cast my vote for Ron Paul in this poll, contrary to the usual stereotype.

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