IOWA OPEN THREAD: ROMNEY WINS BY… EIGHT?!

And the winner is… Mitt by eight votes!

We were waiting patiently for Ames, Iowa (Story County) results all night. Romnus Magnus ultimately won there and, with it, closed the gap with Senator Santorum and produced the squeaker win to end all squeakers! Truly amazing.

The crowded field didn’t make it easy. For perspective, keep in mind that Mitt finished second to Mike Huckabee in 2008 with 30,021 votes. He won first place last night with 30,015… 6 votes less.

A win is still a win, and Mitt is now well-positioned to romp in NH before charging into SC as the first non-incumbent presidential candidate to win BOTH early contests in recent memory. Remember: the real goal of these initial polls is to narrow the field. Mitt was always the only one with enough resources to go deep (besides Perry, who now looks likely to drop after finishing fifth). He didn’t need a push… his rivals did, but none of them were able to grab it. It’s going to get harder and harder to see how any of the non-Romney alternatives pulls this off…

12:55 AM:  Fun fact? Romney apparently delivered his standard stump speech because his prepared speech was on the teleprompter that got taken down immediately before tonight’s appearance at campaign hq. You could tell.

BTW – according to Politico, John McCain will endorse Mitt Romney tomorrow in NH.

12:48 AM:  Okay, is anyone else starting to wonder where the final 2% walked off to?

Or drove? We’ve been told by the AP that the final tallied 2% was being transported by truck somewhere in the vicinity of Ames, Iowa. That was hours ago. Did the driver get lost? Did election officials decide to take a nap?

Not sure how much more of this I can take, folks. Santorum is up by approx. 34 votes…

12:43 AM:  Is it just us, or does Governor Romney look/sound a little rattled tonight?

It’s not hard to understand why. He’s having a looooong night. Still kind of odd for one of the most disciplined pols in the game.

12:39 AM:  Reports are that Romney had a teleprompter set up and then it was taken down at the last minute. Good move.

12:37 AM: Santorum finishes his speech, he is currently in the lead by 5 votes. This is insane.

12:20 AM: Santorum to Iowa HQ Crowd – “Game On!”

12:15 AM: For those tempted to overanalyze Iowa (via Brian McGovern)…

Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton – ever heard of him? – scored 2% in Iowa in 1992.

2%.

12:08 AM: I’m with Joe Trippi (weird, right?)… Santorum made a big mistake not declaring victory earlier on the ballroom floor. East Coast papers are already going to print. He missed a chance to maximize on his accomplishment. Fatal error.

11:58 PM: Governor Perry announced moments ago that he’s returning to Texas to contemplate a possible “path forward” for his presidential campaign. Sounds to me like he’s close to dropping; I would highly recommend it.

Where would his small but significant support go?

ICYMI – We’re waiting on Ames, Iowa results. There’s a university there. Could favor Paul but he can’t win. Will this last spurt of votes put Romney over the top? Or supplement Santorum’s lead?

11:38 PM: I almost feel bad for Michele Bachmann right now as she delivers her “goodnight” speech.

I won’t feel bad for her if she doesn’t drop out by week’s end.

11:17 PM: It’s a two man race in Iowa, Save Jerseyans. The only surprise? That Ron Paul finished as far back as he did. Many analysts favored him to win; third can’t be interpreted as anything less than a huge disappointment.

Romney is back on top right now by about 13 votes. Yes. THIRTEEN stinking votes. Can you believe this? We may not settle this until early tomorrow morning. Sioux County could prove decisive by morning; this far-west conservative bastion gave Santorum a 600+ tally over the former Massachusetts Governor. Either man is likely to win by less.

Waiting on Madison and Monona and Louisa…

10:57 PM: Santorum is (initially) leading in Woodbury County by just over 100 votes. That’s more than the entire margin of victory at this hour. Romney did well there last time. Can he repeat?

Santorum leads Romney by only 13 votes with 88% reporting… Ron Paul is stuck in third and will NOT win this thing (or even finish second).

10:51 PM: Santorum and Romney separated by RAZOR THIN MARGIN with over 80% reporting. Glad to see Ron Paul failing to pick up any additional steam… he’s behind both men by about 4,000 votes. He’s unlikely to recover at this point. I guess there weren’t enough hash-baked college-aged morons to maintain his mo? Thank God for it.

10:31 PM: Romney leads Paul by exactly 999 votes at this time. Herman Cain is somewhere smiling for a second.

10:26 PM: The news outlets are projecting a fifth-place finish for (Texas) Rick. On to SC…

10:16 PM: A little analysis with approximately half of the caucus vote tabulated… if the current results hold and we finish with (1) Santorum, (2) Romney and (3) Paul in that order (purely hypothetical, it’s still early), then you would have to interpret the results as a Romney victory. Neither Paul nor Santorum have a viable shot at the nomination; only Perry possesses ample resources to win a long war against Mitt and he’s hanging on for dear life in second-to-last place.

I just don’t see how that result would affect NH or SC… am I missing something?

10:06 PM: Santorum just passed Romney with 45% reporting. Interestingly, Ron Paul is now in 3rd behind Romney by 1,000votes. Still too soon to make any hard predictions. At the same time, it’s very good to see some distance between the other two leaders and Captain Nutjob. Very good!

9:39 PM: NJ Republican heavyweight to yours truly: “Rick Perry is a train wreck.” Agreed! Man spent millions and can’t buy himself a respectable finish. Drop out, dude.

9:30 PM: Interesting note: walk-in registrants (indies) are apparently breaking for Ron Paul at almost 50% tonight in Iowa.

Translation: Ron Paul is threatening to win a Republican caucus thanks to non-Republican votes. Am I the only one who has a problem with this?

9:23 PM: Ron Paul is leading early in Polk & Warren counties (where Des Moines is located)…

Mitt has fallen back to third place…

9:07 PM: Ten votes currently separate Romney and Paul running hard for the top spot. So few people making such a big splash. I understand why some people think the caucus system is flawed. Not sure I agree with them. Just sayin’…

9:05 PM: With10% reporting, Ron Paul is leading with 25% of the vote. What is wrong with you people?!

Santorum is in 2nd with 24%, and Romney is right behind him with 23%. In other news, Ed Rollins just told a Fox panel that Michele Bachmann should drop out. Ouch. He was a paid member of her team!

8:45 PM: You can follow live results at FoxNews.com. It’s early, but it’s clear that this is a three-way race between Romney, Paul and Santorum (as predicted). On the other end of the coin, Michele Bachmann is likely done after tonight – she is heading for a last place finish after winning the straw poll just months before. Talk about a truly epic collapse!

 

How would YOU vote if you lived in Iowa, Save Jerseyans?

Click here to cast your unofficial ballot.

 

Matt Rooney
About Matt Rooney 8405 Articles
MATT ROONEY is SaveJersey.com's founder and editor-in-chief, a practicing New Jersey attorney, and the host of 'The Matt Rooney Show' on 1210 WPHT every Sunday evening from 7-10PM EST.

2 Comments

  1. Why does this blogger hate Dr. Paul?

    Another RINO establishment loser clinging to a sinking S.S. Romney!

  2. I have Ace Backup 2.1 set up on my computer and I am operating Windows 98SE. While I go to support data using my cd creator, I get a info informing me that "The CD/DVD drive does not support writing. It will yet, back up to my hard drive.

    My CD Creator is a "CyberDrive CW099D" and it does fine when I make use of it all along. I cannot catch why ACE Backup won't identify my Burner. Would any people please help me?

    Thanking you.

Comments are closed.