Suffolk University shows him up by 20 points.
Insider Advantage says his lead is only around 5 points.
But anyway you slice it, Save Jerseyans, Mitt Romney’s led in every single public Sunshine State primary poll for the last week. That’s 15 different surveys detecting a Romney advantage produced by approximately 12 different polling institutions.
Even Intrade users put his odds of victory in Florida at 98%.
It’s clear enough that Mitt will win tomorrow’s Florida Republican primary, and he’s likely to do it by a healthy margin. Next up is Nevada on February 4th, a state that is home to a large number of Mormon voters. Moderate Maine follows shortly thereafter, and then the contests begin to accelerate heading into March 6th’s “Super Tuesday” when 10 states vote at once. One of those states is Virginia, Newt’s adopted home state, where he isn’t even on the ballot due to internal organizational failures (don’t blame the law, Newties; every candidate had plenty of notice).
Advantage going forward? The candidate with the last big win (Florida), superior financial resources, and the strongest national organization.
I’m done making predictions in this race. The effect of Newt’s stellar pre-South Carolina debate performance took all of us by surprise. But the Speaker is quickly running out of big opportunities to change the momentum through sheer force of will and debating prowess. As the game gets bigger, he’s going to look smaller, and that reality can only help the man who has been “in it to win it” since day one.
Yes, storm fronts can pop up out of nowhere. You can never count out a fighter like Newt. For now, however, the forecast for the S.S. Romney is clear skies and clearer sailing between now and the August convention…