Yes, seeing Barack Obama only up 7-points (and Kyrillos “only” down 10) in today’s latest New Jersey Quinnipiac Poll is fun.
But is it real? Probably not unless subsequent polling results continue to replicate the pattern, Save Jerseyans. Sorry to be a wet blanket! Facts are facts. Consider how John McCain was even closer to Barack Obama in a September 16, 2008 Q-Poll of likely New Jersey voters:
Fueled by a surge of support from white voters, Republican Sen. John McCain has narrowed a 10-point gap and now trails Democratic Sen. Barack Obama 48 – 45 percent among New Jersey likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
McCain went on to lose the Garden State in November by a landslide margin: 15.6-points. The closest a Republican presidential candidate has come to winning New Jersey since 1988 (when George H. W. Bush prevailed) was back in 2004 when his son, George W. Bush, lost here by just 5.8-points.
Winning statewide as a Republican isn’t impossible. Chris Christie proved that in 2009, and Save Jerseyans believed it was possible before virtually anyone else did. Unfortunately, winning in a high-turnout presidential year when Democrats have (1) a large cash advantage and (2) a roughly 700k registered voter edge represents a much steeper hill to climb. The fact that Mitt Romney isn’t playing hard in any of Jersey’s media markets (including Eastern PA) is a contributing factor.
