We’ve been telling you that these public polls are bad. And it’s not just wishful thinking or a well-intentioned attempt to boost your morale. We’re honest, but we’re not that nice.
It’s the truth. Here’s more evidence via a great article by Keith Backer of Battleground Watch:
What’s missing in all this analysis is who did not show up in the 2008 election: White voters. Looking back at those results, every voter turnout rate by race (relative to eligible population) was up versus 2004 except the white vote according to Pew Research (April 30, 2009). Blacks were up +4.9%, Hispanics were up +2.7%, Asians were up +2.4%. But the percentage of White voters who showed up at the polls relative to who was eligible dropped -1.1% (Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, May 2010). This has nothing to do with minorities making up more or less of the electorate. This is simply saying from 2004 to 2008 White voter registration (which actually dropped 104k) and actual turnout of White voters (which increased 500k) did not keep up with voting age White population increases.
Read the whole article and the comments, too. Worth your time, Save Jerseyans! And you might sleep better.