Just Sayin…

Here’s an interesting chart from Examiner.com, Save Jerseyans.

Go ahead and contrast it with the latest RCP average of presidential election national polls.

Does anything jump out at you?

Look… I’m not suggesting that Mitt Romney is really up 7.8% nationally. Anything is possible, but that would also mean Mitt Romney’s campaign is on track to best Barack Obama’s 7.2-point margin of victory in 2008 when conditions for his political party were near-perfect. I don’t think Republicans can expect to do quite that well in 2012.

I am, however, determined to keep all Save Jerseyans from fretting over public polls utilizing turnout models which we believe are fundamentally flawed. Very flawed. Whether Obama is up 3-4 points right now or Mitt is leading 7-8 points nationwide depends entirely on “who shows up” on November 6th.

Stay calm and carry on…

 

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1 thought on “Just Sayin…

  1. I don't know that the pollsters have an agenda. The Fox News polls for Obama/Romney haven't been favorable for Romney. The PA Rasmussen poll wasn't favorable for Romney.

    Everything depends on who turns out. There was a very heavy turnout of young voters in the 2008 election. There is a lot of evidence that this will not occur in 2012. The poll director of the Susquehanna poll said that he expects a very tight race in Pennsylavania because the youth vote that turned out in 2008 for Obama will not turn out this year.

    Regarding the turnout, I don't know what will happen. There were about 105,000,000 votes for President in 2000, 120,000,000 in 2004 and 130,000,000 in 2012. My guess is total turnout will go down close to 2004 levels. In that case, it's anybody's guess.

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