We’re all justifiably concerned about Hurricane Sandy today, Save Jerseyans. Landfall is imminent.
But please don’t lose sight of the fact that life will inevitably go on, state residents will unite to rebuild our communities, neighbors will generously assist those in need… and then we’re going to do our part to elect a brand new POTUS on November 6th. That’s how Americans roll. You can’t keep us down for long.
Distracted Save Jerseyans will consequently find today’s polling news a welcome respite from ad nauseum storm coverage:
Scott Rasmussen shows Mitt Romney leading Barack Obama by 2-points among likely Ohio voters, 48% to 46%.
Cheer up! Just don’t act surprised; yesterday, I told you that Mitt Romney was winning in Ohio despite President Obama’s slim yet consistent lead in the RCP average. I won’t repeat my rationale line-by-line; a quick look at a new contradictory PPP poll should get point across…
Most polls show O coming in below 49% in Ohio, a precarious sign for any incumbent. PPP, however, shows Obama leading 51% to 47% by using a wildly inflated Democrat turnout model (a favorite trick of Obama loyalists this cycle).
All you need to do is dig a little into the PPP poll data tables to reveal its fatal flaws. They have Mitt up 4-point among indies; moreover, the PPP turnout sample is D+8 (D 43%, R 35%, I/O 21%). Not realistic! In 2008, Democrats in Ohio enjoyed a D+5 advantage. In 2008, Republicans produced a R+5 turnout. So according to PPP’s logic, Obama now needed better than ’08 turnout to triumph. Good luck with that, Axelrod. The PPP also Ohio poll assumes that roughly 36% of poll participants are actually early voters, among whom Obama posts a massive 27% advantage. That margin may hold, but as of now, only about 20% of raw Ohio likely voters have voted early. You don’t have to be a math genius to understand how that remarkable assumption might skew PPP’s results in the President’s favor.
Take heart, stormed battered Save Jerseyans. Mitt is winning in Ohio. Take it to the bank.