FOUL! New Quinnipiac/CBS/NYT Poll Relies On Record-Setting Democrat Turnout

The mainstream media is gleefully parroting the results of a new Quinnipiac/CBS/NYT poll released yesterday afternoon showing Mitt Romney trailing Barack Obama in three key swing states (PA, OH and FL).

Trailing badly, Save Jerseyans.

But stop the presses! Unfortunately for Romney haters, this poll’s sample was absurdly unrealistic. In fact, an absolutely ideal, hugely historic Democrat turnout model could only exist in David Axelrod’s or Debbie Wasserman Schultz’s filthiest dreams. And we don’t need to go there, nor would we want to.

Don’t believe me? Think I’m grasping for straws? Okay, then don’t take my word for it. All you need to do is compare (1) the party id gap “assumed” in yesterday’s Quinnipiac/CBS/NYT with (2) published exit poll data from the past two presidential elections. I did; look what I found…



2004 –> D +3

2008 –> D +7

2012  Quinnipiac/CBS/NYT Poll –> D +9.


2004 –> R +5

2008 –> D +8

2012 Quinnipiac/CBS/NYT Poll –> D +9


2004 –> R +4.

2008 –> D +3

2012 Quinnipiac/CBS/NYT Poll –> D +9.


Do NOT believe the polls, Save Jerseyans! It’s a sick joke. I don’t know if it’s indicative of bias, stupidity, or a base desire to “create” big news and attract an audience. My suspicion is that they’re using 2008 or better-than 2008 turnout models to zap your enthusiasm.

Don’t let them get away with it.

This is a very close race. Very close.


123 thoughts on “FOUL! New Quinnipiac/CBS/NYT Poll Relies On Record-Setting Democrat Turnout

  1. Matt, I was watching Fox News last night and they were reviewing the details around this whole polling bias with several key strategists. So glad Save Jersey is setting everyone straight as well!

  2. Didn't Quinnipiac and the NY TImes have Jon Corzine winning in 2009? I think the NY Times had him up by 9%.

    Larry Sabato is generally considered as a Liberal Democrat. He seems to be doubting these polls.

    These were the comments on his Crystal Ball page:

    Of course, if the current polls showing a decisive Obama victory turn out to be correct — and we have our doubts — then Democrats will win a lot more than we’re projecting in the Electoral College, the Senate, and the House.

  3. "The latest Fox News poll finds the race for the White House holds steady, with 48 percent of likely voters backing the Obama-Biden ticket and 43 percent backing the Romney-Ryan ticket, if the election were held today. That’s unchanged from two weeks ago, after the Democratic convention."

    Read more:

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