Romney Now Leading Obama in Election 2008’s Two Most Accurate Polls

Rasmussen Reports and Pew Research were far-and-away the most accurate national pollsters of Election 2008, Save Jerseyans. At this point in Election 2012, with exactly four weeks to go, both are leaning in Mitt Romney’s direction.

A new Pew poll released this afternoon shows Mitt Romney leading President Obama by 4-points, 49% to 45%. On the same date in Election 2008, then-Senator Obama led John McCain by 7-points in Pew’s day-old survey; Obama went on to win the presidency by 7.2-points on Election Day.

Today’s latest Rasmussen tracking polls shows an absolute dead heat — 48% to 48% — with Mitt Romney’s supporters slightly more committed than the President’s (by 2-points). On this date in Election 2008, the latest Rasmussen survey showed President Obama leading Senator McCain by 5-points.

Are you noticing a pattern?

This is BAD news for President Obama’s reelection chances, folks. A lot can happen over the next month (we still have three debates to go), but as is typically the case with incumbents, undecideds at this late stage of the race break to the challenger. Obama was already pulling away at this point four years ago with the financial crisis working in his favor; this time around, the economy is an anchor, not a catalyst for his presidential campaign. Hence, why 47.% in the RCP average is such a dangerous place to be for the Democrat incumbent.

Don’t get cocky. Get busy, Save Jerseyans! November is coming… have you done everything you can for the Republic?

 

Matt Rooney
About Matt Rooney 8390 Articles
MATT ROONEY is SaveJersey.com's founder and editor-in-chief, a practicing New Jersey attorney, and the host of 'The Matt Rooney Show' on 1210 WPHT every Sunday evening from 7-10PM EST.

7 Comments

  1. Rasmussen and Pew were not the most accurate pollsters in 2008. Analyses that make such claims were done in November 2008 using election results that were not yet final, showing Obama winning with a spread of 6.5% or less. However when the official numbers were released by the FEC, it became clear that the spread was ACTUALLY 7.28%, and Obama had won 53/46.

    http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2008/federalelections

    A report done by Fordham University using the final FEC numbers for 2008 shows that eight pollsters were more accurate than Rasmussen and Pew.

    FACT: In 2008, Obama won 53/46. (52.93/45.65)

    FACT: Rasmussen & Pew missed it 52/46.

    FACT: CNN/ORC & McClatchy/Ipsos nailed it 53/46.

  2. Exactly. Pew & Rasmussen missed it by a percentage point; they were NOT the most accurate. Also, your link is to an OLD Fordham list that was compiled the day after the election, and based on numbers that were not yet final. Here's the final Fordham report using official FEC election results. Eight pollsters were ranked more accurate than Rasmussen and Pew.

    http://www.fordham.edu/images/academics/graduate_

  3. Look at the November polls. Only other closer poll? Fox News:

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/pres

    Most 2008 polls oversampled just like they are this time, only this time they're going to be off by an even larger margin. Voter registrations dips from Democrats, voter enthusiasm gaps favoring Republicans, and other major factors. Obama will lose solidly.

  4. What are you talking about?

    Obama won with a 7 point spread, 53/46 (52.9/45.6)

    CNN/ORC & Ipsos/McClatchy nailed both spread & percentage with their predictions of 53/46.

    Rasmussen & Pew missed the both spread and percentage with 52/46.

    Fox News got the spread, but missed percentage with 50/43.

  5. Romney has flip-flopped on health care, abortion, taxes, gun control, and many other issues, I don't know who Mitt is at this point! Obama will win, remember Bush lost his first debate against Kerry and we all know how that turned out.

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