Save Jersey Electoral College Projection (10/24/12): ROMNEY 267, OBAMA 243

Only 13 days left to go before Election Day 2012, Save Jerseyans.

And guess what? As I sat down to prepare my latest Electoral College projection, I once again realized why Barack Obama looked so desperate — and Romney so calm by comparison — at Monday’s final presidential debate. Mitt Romney is winning this race. Is it in the bag? No, but the President is about a week away from the point of no return. Did the last debate help him at all? I doubt it; we’ll know for sure later today since the Wednesday tracking poll results include the first post-debate sample.

Where did we stand on debate eve?

Five (5) states changed hands: two (2) moved in the President’s direction, and three (3) moved towards Governor Romney. Overall, Mitt Romney gained a net of ten (10) electoral votes since our last survey, and Barack Obama netted six (6). Eighteen (18) are still complete toss-ups. I’ll explain these developments below the fold….

ROMNEY 267, OBAMA 243 **

Likely Romney: 39 EV

  • Missouri (10)
  • North Carolina (15)
  • Arizona (11)
  • Montana (3)

Lean Romney: 61 EV

  • Florida (29)
  • Colorado  (9)
  • Virginia (13)
  • Iowa (6) –> Moved from “Toss up” to “Lean Romney”
Every pundit/operative with whom I’ve spoken about Iowa agrees: Mitt Romney is surging. The latest PPP (D) poll shows Romney up 1. That means he’s really up at least a few heading into Monday’s debate. Bush won here in 2004, Obama in 2008, but it’s starting to look like Mitt will move the Hawkeye State back into the GOP column. The only reason President Obama is doing as well as he is? Iowa’s 5.2% unemployment rate is well below the national average.
  • New Hampshire (4) –> Moved from “Toss up” to “Lean Romney”
My analysis for the Granite State is identical to my analysis for Iowa, Save Jerseyans. PPP found Governor Romney improving there, too. Romney is personally popular in the state that borders his own, as is his most feisty surrogate, former Governor John Sununu.

Toss Up: 28 EV

  • Ohio (18)
  • Wisconsin (10)

Lean Obama: 59 EV

  • Pennsylvania (20)
  • Nevada  (6)  –> Moved from “Toss up” to “Lean Obama”
Nevada Democrats enjoyed a 111,505 statewide voter registration advantage heading into Election 2008. That gap plummeted to as low as 36,000 in April 2012, but as of last week, it stands at 130,445. It’s a troubling trend explained by strong Clark County (Las Vegas) unions and a swelling Hispanic population. President Obama’s lead isn’t large but it’s been consistent. Romney/Ryan faces an uphill though not insurmountable battle.
  • Michigan (16)
  • Oregon (7)
  • Minnesota (10) –> Moved from “Likely Obama” to “Lean Obama”
For most of the 20th Century, the only more reliably blue state in America was the Kennedy Family’s Massachusetts. Even Reagan didn’t win there in 1984 when Walter Mondale dropped every other electoral prize minus D.C. That said, Republicans have been making progress in the upper Midwest as of late in much the same way that Democrats have strengthened their base in the Southwest over the past couple cycles. Two recent public polls put Minnesota within 5-points. Stranger things happen every day, and Mitt’s surge hasn’t been arrested… 

Likely Obama: 42 EV

  • Maine (4*) –> Moved from “Lean Obama” to “Likely Obama”
It’s a tough state, folks, and there hasn’t been any Romney surge here just yet. However… and this is a big however…
 
One (1) competitive congressional district (ME-2) in Maine might go for Mitt Romney, and because of unique state rules, that elector would go to Romney. The GOP “Restore Our Future” PAC just made a $300k ad buy up there…
  • Washington (12)
  • New Mexico (5)
  • New Jersey (14)
  • Connecticut (7)
** Methodology: Like I said upon posting the first map…
Mixed. Obviously public polling is my #1 resource (with some private polling info sprinkled in as I come across it from sources). I am not relying on the RCP average, however, because I refuse to consider biased mainstream polls with huge, better-than-2008 Democrat turnout models. +2 Dem in Ohio? Okay +11? Nope! They’re stripped out. I’m also relying on (1) general national/regional trends for 2012, (2) recent historical data/trends, and (3) non-polling info that I’ve either (A) read online just like you, or (B) obtained from a reliable first or second person source. This is half-science, half-art. But what isn’t?

 

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61 thoughts on “Save Jersey Electoral College Projection (10/24/12): ROMNEY 267, OBAMA 243

  1. I don't agree that Nevada is lost. Obama probably needed more Democrats just to make up for the ones he's lost since 2008. More registrants doesn't mean Clark County is coming out heavy.

  2. I also don't think that Nevada is a loss. The 2010 election there resulted in Harry Reid being reelected to the Senate while Reid's son running for governor lost big time.

  3. It's not lost for Romney, but I think he has a very uphill climb in the state. 2010 was a pretty ideal turnout model for the GOP, and the voter registration composition has changed since then. 2012 will be better than 2008. 2010 good? Eh…

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