Save Jersey Electoral College Projection (10/19/12): ROMNEY 257, OBAMA 237

Only 17 days left to go before Election Day 2012, Save Jerseyans.

Polling traditionally becomes more reliable as the big vote draws near, so it’s time to start charting the battle for control of the Electoral College on a more regularized basis here at your favorite New Jersey blog. Every day? Eh, I haven’t decided yet; we may hold off for days when there are actual “significant” changes.

Methodology: Mixed. Obviously public polling is my #1 resource (with some private polling info sprinkled in as I come across it from sources). I am not relying on the RCP average, however, because I refuse to consider biased mainstream polls with huge, better-than-2008 Democrat turnout models. +2 Dem in Ohio? Okay +11? Nope! They’re stripped out. I’m also relying on (1) general national/regional trends for 2012, (2) recent historical data/trends, and (3) non-polling info that I’ve either (A) read online just like you, or (B) obtained from a reliable first or second person source. This is half-science, half-art. But what isn’t?

So here’s the first installment. If you disagree with our projections in any way, please weigh in below… I don’t bite!

ROMNEY 257, OBAMA 237 *

Right now, Save Jersey projects 257 EV for Romney, 237 EV for Obama without toss-ups factored in (10/19/12)

Likely Romney: 39 EV

  • Missouri (10)
  • North Carolina (15)
  • Arizona (11)
  • Montana (3)

Lean Romney: 51 EV

  • Florida (29)
  • Colorado  (9)
  • Virginia (13)

Toss Up: 44 EV

  • Ohio (18)
  • Nevada  (6)
  • Iowa (6)
  • Wisconsin (10)
  • New Hampshire (4)

Lean Obama: 47 EV

  • Pennsylvania (20)
  • Michigan (16)
  • Maine (4 **)
  • Oregon (7)

Likely Obama: 48 EV

  • Washington (12)
  • New Mexico (5)
  • Minnesota (10)
  • New Jersey (14)
  • Connecticut (7)
 
* It’s worth repeating something I’ve been saying for weeks… if Romney (or Obama, for argument’s sake) opens up enough of a national lead, swing state polling will like matter for less from a predictive standpoint since most states within 1-3 points will trend into that candidate’s column. That’s why the last two days of Gallup polling are such a big deal; both show Romney leading (1) above 50% and (2) outside of the margin of error.
 
** One (1) competitive congressional district in Maine might go for Mitt Romney, and because of state rules, that elector would go to Romney; for now, I’m not making any projection.

 

81 thoughts on “Save Jersey Electoral College Projection (10/19/12): ROMNEY 257, OBAMA 237

  1. I have to disagree with you about Colorado, a poll come out saying 50-47 to Obama. I dare say it should be Grey.

    If you going to give Florida to Romney, then you should give Ohio "Lean Obama" since Ohio difference is 2% bigger.

    ROMNEY 248, OBAMA 255. That still means its all to play for, and it could go either way.

    National polls are useless, only state poll are useful.

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