Only 17 days left to go before Election Day 2012, Save Jerseyans.
Polling traditionally becomes more reliable as the big vote draws near, so it’s time to start charting the battle for control of the Electoral College on a more regularized basis here at your favorite New Jersey blog. Every day? Eh, I haven’t decided yet; we may hold off for days when there are actual “significant” changes.
Methodology: Mixed. Obviously public polling is my #1 resource (with some private polling info sprinkled in as I come across it from sources). I am not relying on the RCP average, however, because I refuse to consider biased mainstream polls with huge, better-than-2008 Democrat turnout models. +2 Dem in Ohio? Okay +11? Nope! They’re stripped out. I’m also relying on (1) general national/regional trends for 2012, (2) recent historical data/trends, and (3) non-polling info that I’ve either (A) read online just like you, or (B) obtained from a reliable first or second person source. This is half-science, half-art. But what isn’t?
So here’s the first installment. If you disagree with our projections in any way, please weigh in below… I don’t bite!
ROMNEY 257, OBAMA 237 *
Likely Romney: 39 EV
- Missouri (10)
- North Carolina (15)
- Arizona (11)
- Montana (3)
Lean Romney: 51 EV
- Florida (29)
- Colorado (9)
- Virginia (13)
Toss Up: 44 EV
- Ohio (18)
- Nevada (6)
- Iowa (6)
- Wisconsin (10)
- New Hampshire (4)
Lean Obama: 47 EV
- Pennsylvania (20)
- Michigan (16)
- Maine (4 **)
- Oregon (7)
Likely Obama: 48 EV
- Washington (12)
- New Mexico (5)
- Minnesota (10)
- New Jersey (14)
- Connecticut (7)
I have to disagree with you about Colorado, a poll come out saying 50-47 to Obama. I dare say it should be Grey.
If you going to give Florida to Romney, then you should give Ohio "Lean Obama" since Ohio difference is 2% bigger.
ROMNEY 248, OBAMA 255. That still means its all to play for, and it could go either way.
National polls are useless, only state poll are useful.
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