Christie’s Swinging in Key States

By Matt Rooney | The Save Jersey Blog

2004 Electoral ScreenshotA new poll out Monday shows Chris Christie performing the best of his potential Republican rivals in key 2016 “swing” states but still facing an uphill slog against the Hilldawg, Save Jerseyans.

The Monmouth University Polling Institute’s key findings are definitely worth noting if you’re a shameless primary prognosticator like yours truly:

“According to the poll, Christie, Bush, and Rubio perform about the same in the Swing States.  However, all three lose to Clinton in the Swing States by between 7 and 9 points.  They also do about the same in the Red States, with each leading Clinton by 6 to 8 points.  The Leaning States are a different story.  Bush (-17 points) and Rubio (-20 points) trail Clinton in the Leaning States, but Christie leads Clinton by 2 points in this important bulwark for Republicans.  Christie also does better than Bush and Rubio in the Blue States, but it is still a losing proposition for all three Republicans – Christie is down 13 points to Clinton in the Blue States compared to a 20 point deficit for both Bush and Rubio.  Cruz trails Clinton in all four state groupings, Swing (-20), Leaning (-15), Blue (-20) and Red (-5).”

[Emphasis Added.]

The Electoral College still rules the day. “Chris Christie appears strong everywhere but in the swing states, which means that any Republican running against Hillary Clinton would still have a tough path to 270 Electoral College votes, which are the only votes that matter,” opined Patrick Murray, head of the Polling Institute.

I nevertheless happen to think it’s a positive poll for the Big Guy.

Not only does it play right into the “he’s the only one who can win” narrative, but to contrast him from the last guy who won a primary nomination using that “electability” rationale, I don’t think it’s unfair to ask ourselves rhetorically “who would sell better in places like Northern Virginia, the Philly suburbs and Florida’s I-4 Corridor: the larger-than-life Chris Christie or a guy named Willard?” And you all know how much I genuinely respected Mitt, Save Jerseyans. But it is what it is. The country’s tastes have changed (for the worst in some respects).

Christie’s political special sauce is all the rage these days; everyone wants the recipe. A particularly insightful article on the topic can be found over at NY Mag

Click here to review Murray’s full polling report and data tables for yourselves.

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