Lonegan Could Win CD3

By Matt Rooney | The Save Jersey Blog

LoneganDon’t laugh, Save Jerseyans.

It’s possible after this evening’s announcement that the former Bogota mayor is moving to the Jersey Shore community of Lavallette and running for Jon Runyan’s open House seat.

Team Steve likes the math. New Jersey’s Third Congressional District is a R+2 post-redistricting
(a.k.a. without Cherry Hill). Jon Runyan was reelected by almost 10-points in 2012 despite the President’s nearly 20-point statewide victory; Chris Christie carried the two counties from which CD3 derives its territory with 62.3% (Burlington) and 75.8% (Ocean) of the vote respectively.

CD3 is red territory and Election 2014, at the moment, looks like it could be the Obamacare-backlash cycle. Lonegan also won 54% of the voter there against Senator Snowflake Cory Booker (D-Twitter).

 

Sure, Steve Lonegan will still need to win a primary without the Burlington County line (they hate him there) AND probably the Ocean line, too, but his name recognition will easily exceed that of anyone else in the race from the get-go. He also has an infrastructure in place after numerous campaign and AFP-NJ-related initiatives over the course of a decade.

It’ll be up to a big money candidate like Tom MacArthur (R-Randolph) to blow him out of the water IF the race gets that far. We’ll see if anyone feels like expending the time and effort to keep it from getting THAT far.

Few thought it would until the 11th hour. Republican National Committeeman Bill Palatucci and his best friend Governor Chris Christie (heard of him?) are hosting a fundraising reception to “honor” Steve Lonegan on January 16th in Mountain Lakes. Most observers thought the entire point of helping Lonegan retire his 2013 special U.S. Senate election campaign debt was to keep him satisfied and out of the CD3 contest.

Guess not?

It’s a ballsy gambit that Lonegan might just survive. Burlington County Freeholder Aimee Belgard, the likely Dem nominee, is considered a paper tiger. She’ll have to try and hit Lonegan with the extremist carpet-bagger tag and hope the fall turnout model doesn’t render her messaging irrelevant.

I like (not love) Steve’s chances which is a separate and distinct consideration from whether you actually want him in the race, Save Jerseyans. That’s already been decided for you.

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h9ct7WLdb4Y

Comments

comments

64 thoughts on “Lonegan Could Win CD3

  1. Absolutely not. We supported him for Senate when he was our party nominee, but our town, where Republicans outnumber Democrats, voted against him in favor of Booker. If he can’t win a town like Moorestown, he’d have big problems in winning this Congressional seat. The feeling here seems to be that it’s time to give someone else a chance.

  2. I know far too many Republicans and Independents who voted “no” to Lonegan…. We can’t afford to run someone like him in Burlington….. Towns like mine would lose Republicans up and down the ballot…. He would hurt our county freeholders and our local races….. Time for new blood

  3. He’s also the only candidate in the field right now that could possibly lose what is otherwise a safe seat.

  4. absolutely not, why throw away this seat? he is the DCCC’s dream candidate

  5. He would RUIN our chances to keep this seat. I don’t even know if I could vote for him again. Wouldnt vote Belgard, but just cant stomach him. He said he wouldn’t run EVER again, let him KEEP HIS WORD. I held my nose for Senate and pressed the button for him, but enough is enough.

  6. Roll up the sleeves and lets get to work, finally a chance to get a great congressman in this district

  7. Can someone tell me Lonegans win loss record in General Elections? Heck, you can include the special too. Anyone?

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