Cook Concurs with Sabato On CD3

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By Matt Rooney | The Save Jersey Blog

South Jersey's CD3

South Jersey’s CD3

A second leading national congressional race analyst in 24 hours sees reason for CD3 (PVI R+1) GOP optimism in the wake of Tuesday’s primary, Save Jerseyans….

From The Cook Report‘s David Wasserman.

“NJ-03: OPEN (Runyan) (R) – South central: Burlington, Toms River
Lean Republican. With former GOP Senate nominee Steve Lonegan no longer in the picture, Republicans can breathe slightly easier in this open seat. After loaning his campaign $2 million, GOP former Randolph Mayor Tom MacArthur easily beat the Tea Party-backed Lonegan, 60 percent to 40 percent, for the right to face Democratic Burlington County Freeholder Aimee Belgard in the fall. MacArthur’s money and the tilt of both the district (R+1) and the national environment make him the slight favorite in November.”

Election Projection also adjusted its map accordingly.

At the moment, Cook places 232 House seats in the GOP column (including leaners) for Election 2014; the Republican Party presently has 233 seats in the popular chamber which, putting things into perspective, is a pretty darn good place to start. Another 27 seats are either toss-ups or lean/weak Democrat. That tells me Democrats may not have a financial incentive (or ability) to fight to flip CD3 by the fall if current trends persist and defenses pile up. TBD…


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