POLL: Trump trails Clinton by only 4-points in… New Jersey!

By The Staff | The Save Jersey Blog

No one is surprised to see Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump in the Garden State, Save Jerseyans.

But by only 4-points? That result will fetch a little more attention.

According to a brand new Monmouth University poll, Clinton leads Trump 38% to 34%.  A full 11% plan to vote for a 3rd party and 15% report being undecided. 

christie trumpIn a four-way match-up including Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, Trump is the big loser as his share of the vote falls to 31% versus Clinton’s 37%; Johnson landed 5% and Stein not far behind at 4%. A previous Monmouth poll, taken long before the former New Mexico Governor locked up his party’s nomination in Orlando over the long weekend, found an identical level of support for the Libertarian candidate.

“Blue Jersey doesn’t appear quite so blue at this stage of the campaign, but we should keep in mind that neither major party candidate has fully locked in the support of their partisan bases. When and if that happens, the benefit should accrue more to Clinton than to Trump simply because Democrats outnumber Republicans in the state,” explained Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

The historical approach would urge caution in reading too much into the numbers. A summer 2012 Monmouth poll found Mitt Romney trailing President Obama by 8-points in New Jersey; the Democrat incumbent ultimately carried the state by close to 20-points. Still, there isn’t much conventional about Election 2016.

One major reason for the low number of decided voters in this cycle’s Monmouth survey? 68% of black voters in New Jersey are voting for Clinton while only 1% support Trump but more surprising, however, is how 21% remain undecided.

“Based on historical precedent, these undecided minority voters should break strongly for the Democratic nominee. On the other hand, not much about the 2016 race has followed historical precedent,” added Murray.