Bush won in 2000. Dems swept NJ/VA in 2001.
Obama won in 2008. GOP swept NJ/VA in 2009.
And so the cycle repeats itself again this cycle, Save Jerseyans, so don’t get too deflated on this morning after. That’s the way of the Force. Don’t read too much into the tea leaves. Partisans will spin because that’s their job. Everyone will push their self-interested narratives to support pre-ordained conclusions. This referendum on Trump nonsense is totally predictable but very lazy. Again, Democrats just won two states comfortably carried one year ago by… Hillary Clinton.
It would nevertheless be a major mistake to assume that President Trump and Congress’s inability to get ANYTHING accomplished legislatively isn’t a YUGE branding problem.
It would be an even bigger mistake for New Jersey Republicans to place most of the blame on national factors for yesterday’s down-ballot massacre. 2017 was always going to be challenging, whether Christie’s approval rating was at 61% or 16%. We need to control what we can control, and the state of our state’s own taxpayer movement is abysmal.
NOTHING yesterday surprised me. I’ve spent a TON of time talking about Chris Christie messaging and party-building failures on this site. You all know this. So let’s run through three broad but hugely important takeaways from Election 2017 to get the “next steps” discussion off on a production footing:
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#1 – The NJGOP needs to be a party of zealous, principled opposition, not tactical capitulation. “We’ll tax you less” is a pathetic message but that’s been the message (when we have one at all) since 2011-ish. That gas tax “deal” only added to the confusion and 100% hurt us in some red and working class areas where Republicans weren’t enthusiastic. Another thing: our voters could give less of damn about bipartisanship; they want results. My clients hire me because they want an advocate. Getting along for the sake of getting along is a loser’s game. It’s time to start picking fights.
#2 – The NJGOP itself needs an enema and a complete redesign. Governor Christie turned what was already a weak organization into a complete non-entity, using its funds to further personal ambitions (e.g. the travel spending & those pro-gas tax mailers). I’ll share more of the not-so-secret history of how/when that all happened in the coming days. For now… let the overhaul begin. We need a REAL, permanent state party. Not a loose confederation of parochial interests. And a big part of that overhaul needs to be more permanent bodies in the field with the goal of building a genuine statewide party functioning 24/7/365. We also need a permanent, ongoing PR attack shop to help control the narrative. None of this is rocket science. We haven’t been doing it primarily because (1) Chris Christie didn’t want to do it and (2) few people had the balls to tell’em he was wrong. Now there’s no excuse. Find the money; we waste more $$$ on much dumber stuff every cycle.
#3 – Red district Republicans now realize (I hope) that there’s no such thing as a “safe” New Jersey Republican. Not anymore. But the answer is NOT a fortress mentality; the best defense is always a good offense. It’s time to leave the nest and give battle to the other side before it’s too late (assuming it’s not already). GOP leaders at the Shore, the Skylands, etc., need to start actively working to build the party in winnable territories including “blue” places like Cumberland, Gloucester, South Bergen and suburban Middlesex counties where Chris Christie won races and populist messaging can AND DOES work. Look to towns and districts where Trump actually improved, dramatically, on Romney’s margins. Cut some checks and lend your institutional support. The old unspoken excuse was self-preservation, i.e. “they’ll leave us alone if we leave them alone.” No more. We fight as one or we should move to PA now.
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I’ll have more to say in the days ahead, folks. I hope you will, too. This is a discussion… not a lecture.
#Unite, and fight, or move now. We’re out of time.
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