By Matt Rooney
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My starting position on Mitt Romney’s big child poverty plan is extreme skepticism, Save Jerseyans, and not just because it’s coming from Mitt Romney. I have trouble accepting the notion – from either the policy or political perspectives – that Republicans should give up once and for all on the dream of limited republican government. This plan is social engineering: just social engineering (paying the Middle Class to pop out babies) which Republicans find far less offensive than the Democrats’ welfare state (keeping people dependent in exchange for their votes).
Remember Larry David’s famous “the good Hodgkins” routine? There is no “good” Hodgkins, folks.
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We’ll wait for all the details and study the Hungarian model before rendering final judgment.
Here’s something of special interest for New Jersey in the interim:
Romney’s plan is allegedly deficit neutral because it would replace TANF, the child and dependent care credit, and… wait for it… the SALT deduction.
Yup. He went there.
As you know, the recent $10,000 SALT cap accompanying the 2017 Trump-era tax reform law was arguably a top reason, if not THE top reason, why Republicans lost seats like NJ-07 and NJ-11 in 2018. My position is obviously a little different than your average middle-to-upper middle class swing voter; I see know reason why it benefits anyone for high tax states like New Jersey and New York to be effectively bailed out of their bad policy decisions by a sweeping federal deduction. If people vote for high taxes? They should feel high taxes so they stop voting for high taxes.
But as with many things, Save Jerseyans, yours truly is indeed in the minority (despite the fact that I’m kinda/sorta siding with Mitt Romney on this particular issue).
Getting rid of the current capped deduction would boost the government’s coffers by about $21.2 billion annually and kick higher-level property taxpayers in places like North Jersey in the chops. Down in South Jersey? Where property taxes are still terrible by a national standard but lower relative to the North? Different story. There’s a reason why Josh Gottheimer (D, NJ-05) and Chris Smith (R, NJ-04) are teaming up on a plan to restore the full deduction (which cost about $80 billion more annually).
Again, we’ll need to get more information on the plan to see exactly how it would impact your average New Jerseyan. I’m just pointing out the obvious: unless there’s a big twist hidden somewhere in Rombot’s proposal, it might be a really, really tough sell with a Democrat Congress in place without keeping the SALT deduction in place, but if it remains in place… it’s no longer deficit neutral.
Stay tuned.
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