Phil Murphy could be in worse shape, Save Jerseyans, especially if we had a media that wasn’t almost totally in the bag for Democrats. Still, he’s undeniably in a weaker reelection position than the last New Jersey governor to win a second term.
That’s according to the Monmouth University Poll; on Wednesday, the Patrick Murray-led outfit reported that only 48% of registered voter New Jerseyans thought Murphy should get a second term. That’s compared to 59% who thought Christie deserved reelection in April 2013.
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Context: Murphy’s reelect number is allegedly below 50% in a state with a 1+ million Democrat registration advantage.
Murphy and Christie share one thing in common if nothing else: both men entered their respective reelection campaign cycles with a single major issue dominating the disucssion. For Christie it was Sandy; for Murphy it’s COVID-19. Both incumbents also got a shit ton of free “earned media” out of the photo opportunities presented by the media’s obsession with disaster porn.
Christie’s job approval rating stood at 63% approve and 26% disapprove in spring 2013. Jon Corzine, on the other hand, was stuck in the mud back in spring 2009 with 40% approving and 49% disapproving.
Murphy’s standing is still undeniably strong (and much, much better than Corzine) but not quite as robust at 57% approve and 35% disapprove (a decline in standing from the 71% approve and 21% disapprove numbers he posted last year).
“Murphy has a pretty strong job rating going into his reelection bid. However, New Jersey voters are a fickle lot and a good number will sit on the fence until we get closer to the fall campaign in case things go south for the state,” said Murray.
I’d unsurprisingly put it a little differently:
The jury is still out on Murphy’s stewardship during the COVID-19 crisis.
A lot of people are dead. Businesses are destroyed and gone forever. Problems with our schools, unemployment system, the MVC, and other basic government functions persist.
Murphy and his eventual GOP opponent will need to come up with satisfactory answers for all of it.
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