5 things to watch in Tuesday’s N.J. Republican primary

There are 40 legislative districts in New Jersey, folks, but only a handful see truly competitive general elections thanks to gerrymandering. Of those that are actually interesting, an even smaller percentage feature competitive primaries. Only 3 of 40 fit this bill in 2021.

Here are the big GOP races on our radar for Tuesday night and one other important item to watch:

Gubernatorial Race: Where does the NJGOP go?

Singh

A former Assemblyman and businessman. A MAGA millennial perennial candidate. A Baptist pastor. An ex-freeholder and accountant.

Jack Ciattarelli, Hirsh Singh, Phil Rizzo and Brian Levine, respectively, don’t disagree on much on paper, Save Jerseyans, but the personalities and biographies of the four men are very different. The deciding issue for many voters may boil down to a simple choice between MAGA (with Singh and Rizzo competing for the Trump voter) and a more traditional fiscal conservatism embodied by Ciattarelli.

Trump hasn’t touched the race despite an 11th hour counterfeit endorsement making the rounds online.

Armed with every county line and matching funds, Ciattarelli is favored on Tuesday night but polling has shown Singh – who lives with his parents and loaned a six-figure sum to his own campaign – within striking distance due in part to a robust social media presence. Singh has pledged to make the November election about Trump (a prospect that excites the Murphy people, too, since Trump got clobbered in N.J. last year). Rizzo, for his part, has already ruled out backing Ciattarelli if he wins since Ciattarelli supports abortion exceptions.

The most interesting thing to watch in this race might not be the final result but whether the winner is capable of bringing the party together to defeat Phil Murphy. It’s TBD. 

LD2: Grossman vs. Polistina

Grossman

This might be the primary most likely to produce an upset result, Save Jerseyans.

It’s a fairly formulaic establishment conservative vs. populist conservative fight for the seat being vacated by Chris Brown. Vince Polistina, a politically influential engineer and former Assemblyman who lost a bid for the NJ Senate a decade ago, has the backing of the Atlantic County GOP. His rival Seth Grossman is once again running off the line but recently landed the NRA’s coveted endorsement.

Grossman, an attorney, won an upset victory in 2018 for the GOP’s NJ-02 congressional nomination without a single line to his name; he ultimately lost the fall general to then-Democrat Jeff Van Drew, but he did so by a surprisingly modest single-digit margin despite being outspent dramatically AND after having been ditched by the party fathers for politically incorrect statements.

More than one poll has shown Grossman with an edge in a district that includes Atlantic City, its inner ring suburbs, and most of the county’s more rule communities, too. 

LD13: DiMaso fights for survival.

Rizzo (left) and DiMaso (right)

Assemblywoman Serena DiMaso (R-Holmdel) and Sheriff/Monmouth GOP Chairman Shaun Golden have a long history of not getting along. Team Golden has argued that she’s a disappointment in the legislature and not a team player. DiMaso insists her independence – e.g. not backing the county org endorsed candidate – is the real problem. I’ve interviewed all three candidates this season – DiMaso, Assemblyman Gerry Scharfenberger and his 2021 running mate Vickie Flynn – and all three opted against launching personal attacks.

This one could be interesting.

Denied the Monmouth line, DiMaso is an underdog but still has halfway decent ballot position and could ride years of name recognition as a legislator and former county freeholder to an off-the-line victory. It’s possible. She’s also gotten outside help from her personal friend Bill Spadea of NJ 101.5 who regularly boosts DiMaso and criticizes Golden.

She’s partnered with gubernatorial candidate Phil Rizzo; watch how Rizzo does in Monmouth and compare his performance to DiMaso’s when the dust finally settles.

LD26: What is the new Morris line worth?

DeCroce

Things are a bit mixed up in this rare safe Republican district.

There are four Assembly candidates fight for two GOP nominations in the 26th Legislative District this June. The district is dominated by Morris County (about 80% of the district-wide vote share), but it also takes in a little bit of both Passaic and Essex. Passaic’s and Essex’s organizations endorsed establishment Republican incumbent Betty Lou DeCroce; she has the backing of the right-leaning operating engineers but also the far-left NJEA, a pariah in NJGOP politics.

DeCroce losing Morris’s support was and is a big deal. How big?

Her former running mate – Assemblyman Jay Webber – is a leading conservative voice in the legislature. He’s partnered with Christian Barranco, a former Democrat and IBEW member. Both Webber and Barranco have the newly-founded Morris line, and Barranco got the line in Passaic, too. The four candidate is Morris County Commissioner Tom Mastrangelo, a controversial figure in local politics who’s running off-of-the-line in all three counties.

The conventional wisdom says Webber is solid (if not safe) for one of the two seats. The real battle is likely for the second seat. Can Barranco, a newcomer, ride along with Webber and upset DeCroce? Or will the incumbent be able to pull enough support from Morris to hold on? The fight is likely to come down to how strong the brand new Morris line proves to be.

GOP Turnout: Does it overtake the Democrats’ turnout?

The last time a Democrat incumbent lost reelection, Chris Christie and Steve Lonegan had driven a respectable 33.2% primary turnout for the June 2009 primary. Republican turnout actually exceeded Democrat turnout. Eight years later, Guadagno vs. Ciattarelli only fetched a 21.4% turnout.

Keep an eye on the percentage of Republicans voting on Tuesday. It could give us a clue as to how jazzed up the anti-Murphy opposition really is. 

Matt Rooney
About Matt Rooney 8405 Articles
MATT ROONEY is SaveJersey.com's founder and editor-in-chief, a practicing New Jersey attorney, and the host of 'The Matt Rooney Show' on 1210 WPHT every Sunday evening from 7-10PM EST.