New Jersey’s new congressional map is undeniably a disgrace, Save Jerseyans, and if there’s any justice in the universe, it will be overturned. I’m not holding my breath of course. But – and this is a big but – there is a possible silver lining for Republicans even if the Democrat redistricting screw-job remains in place:
Jack Ciattarelli ran competitively in the newly-configured districts, and Brandon doesn’t seem to be getting any more popular with inflation, Covid, and scientifically-bankrupt school closures raging across the country!
–
According to a preliminary GOP analysis of the gubernatorial results relative to the new map shared with Save Jersey, Ciattarelli won or finished inside of the single digit range in 8 of 12 districts, 6 of which are currently occupied by Democrat incumbents.
The now-former Republican gubernatorial nominee actually won three of New Jersey’s twelve U.S. House districts outright in November:
NJ-02 (Van Drew) – 62% to 37% – (Ciattarelli +25)
NJ-04 (Smith) – 65% to 34% – (Ciattarelli +31)
NJ-07 (Malinowski) – 55% to 44% – (Ciattarelli +11)
Meanwhile, there are a few other districts where Ciattarelli’s margin of loss to Phil Murphy fell inside of single-digit territory:
NJ-03 (Kim) – 49% to 50% – (Murphy +1)
NJ-05 (Gottheimer) – 49% to 50% – (Murphy +1)
NJ-06 (Pallone) – 46% to 53% – (Murphy +7)
NJ-09 (Pascrell) – 46% to 53% – (Murphy +7)
NJ-11(Sherrill) – 48% to 52% – (Murphy +4)
Yes, it’s absurd that there are only three “Ciattarelli districts” in a state that Murphy won by less than 4-points. That’s obviously not a “competitive” or “fair” map by any sane or remotely objective yardstick.
Federal electorates are also generally different from state or “off year” electorates.”
My takeaway: even if this map stands, a hypothetical 1994-like Republican wave next November COULD produce multiple N.J. congressional pick ups notwithstanding the strong Democrat-tilt of the newly-adopted map.
The right GOP candidates – in an optimal GOP environment – could once again shock the oddsmakers.
Happy New Year, folks. See you on the other side.
–
