If you needed any indication as to how serious the Republican redistricting commissioners are about producing a serious legislative map proposal, Save Jerseyans?
They’re taking a senior GOP senator’s safe seat and turning it into a toss-up.
The 86-year old legislator with a Southern accent (he’s originally from Alabama) has served in the legislature since 1998. Thompson won reelection in 2021 with nearly 65%, but if the GOP proposal were somehow adopted (it’s unlikely to be at least absent significant changes, so stay tuned), Thompson’s new district gave Jack Ciattarelli a far more modest 52% victory.
That would make Central Jersey’s LD12 one of the state’s new swing districts. It’s transparently part of the Republican commissioners’ overarching goals: create competitive districts. In LD12, Republicans would accomplish the competitiveness goal in part by removing some of 12’s red Ocean territory, notably Jackson Township and adding blue East Brunswick. I’m told the LD12 team isn’t happy, but most Republicans who’ve analyzed the map believe the current work product gives Republicans their best realistic shot in two decades to fight for control of one (or both) legislative chambers in a “good” cycle.
The “good” cycle part is obviously always key. Still, notwithstanding the peril to Thompson and his Assembly running mates, the new map (click here) would likely result in 2-4 GOP pick ups in 2023 based on redistricting alone. LD4, LD14, and LD38 are notable examples of districts which were competitive a decade ago and would once again be up-for-grabs.
We hear a lot of talk about “democracy” these days. We should all be able to agree with the following: you can’t have a healthy democratic system if most elections are inconsequential because the map renders the general election a rubber stamp of one party or the other’s primary results. By that measure alone, it’s hard not to see the Republican proposal as a superior starting point for legislative redistricting. Approximately one million more New Jerseyans would get to participate in REAL legislative elections in 2023 than were afforded the opportunity in 2021.
