South Jersey Republicans’ gains over the past two cycles certainly tell a compelling story, Save Jerseyans, and the shift in voter registration data helps flesh it out.
Quick note: for the purposes of this post, we’re defining South Jersey as the Southern Six counties + Burlington and Ocean. Ocean’s inclusion isn’t universally accepted, I get it, but there are good arguments on both sides so we’re erring in favor of declaring Ocean “southern.” Moving on…
South Jersey Republicans saw a net gain of 36,114 registered voters since February 1, 2021 through August 31, 2022. Half of that increase came from a single county (the GOP stronghold of Ocean), but Republicans made impactful gains in every since county. Here’s the list:
Atlantic -> +4,065
Burlington -> +1,697
Camden -> +4,018
Cape May -> + 1,208
Cumberland -> + 2,007
Gloucester -> +6,166
Salem -> +1,635
Ocean -> + 15,318
Meanwhile, Democrats gained voters in only one county: Burlington which has been moving decidedly to the Left for several years now. They still posted a modest overall net loss these relative to GOP registration gains.
Republicans will be particularly happy about the results in Gloucester and Cumberland, two counties where the GOP can win control this year for the first time in decades. In 2020, Cumberland Republican top voter getter Victoria Lods fell 2,464 votes short of winning a freeholder seat. The pary there has since covered 80% of their deficit on voter registration changes alone as of today, and we’re still two full months from Election Day 2022.
In 2023, Republicans’ best chance to win another State Senate seat on the new legislative map lies in LD4 which is dominated by Glouco.
Registration is naturally only part of the overall electoral picture. Republicans regularly outperform their raw numbers in statewide elections where Democrats continue to maintain a (shrinking) one million voter advantage.
I still don’t think the South Jersey GOP should be shy about holding these numbers out as a decisive trend and a hopeful sign of things to come this year and beyond.
