It’d be a mistake to pretend New Jersey isn’t still “blue” at least on paper, Save Jerseyans, but Republicans have cut Democrats’ statewide voter registration edge significantly over the past few years. By tens of thousands of votes, in fact.
On Friday, we learned that the state removed 97,674 registered voters from its rolls due to inactivity. 38,065 formerly registered Democrats, 18,828 Republicans, and 39,457 unaffiliated (sometimes called “independent) voters. Yes, Democrats still have an over 970,000 statewide advantage, but that’s 19,000+ less than last month and down measurably from summer 2022 when Democrats’ tally over Republicans exceeded the symbolic one million mark.
The GOP still faces a tough slog in statewide races (Democrats outnumbered Republicans by *only* 700,000 when Chris Christie beat Jon Corzine way back in 2009).
However, the progress may have a direct impact on the handful of competitive battleground districts at play this cycle.
Here’s a prime example: LD11, a rare split district where Republicans hold the Assembly seats at Democrats’ hold the Senate slot, August 2023’s adjustment takes the Democrat advance from 14,171 down to 13,731. Gopal was only reelected in 2021 by 2,682 votes, and Democrats fell short of the second Assembly seat by 347 votes (less than the 440 which Democrats lost in August).
