It’s Labor Day, Save Jerseyans, and we’re sharing our race ratings for the big battlegrounds of New Jersey’s Election 2023. There are two genuine “toss ups” as of the end of August. I gave you my take on the other one – LD4 – this past Friday.
Now it’s time to head northeast to Monmouth County and handicap LD11.
This central-Monmouth district is anchored by rural farmlands and sprawling horse farms in the west (Freehold Township and Colts Neck), liberal, urban-ish cities along the coast (Red Bank, Neptune, Asbury Park, Long Branch), and a gaggle of suburbs in the middle (Ocean Township, Tinton Falls, Eatontown) which are swing towns. It’s economically and demographically diverse. In fact, you’re hard pressed to find a more diverse district in the state than this one.
So perhaps it’s fitting that this is the ONLY district out of 40 that currently has split partisan representation amongst its elected members; we won’t count LD12 since Sam Thompson switched parties while in office and will almost certainly be succeeded by a Republican this November.
Incumbents are tough to beat in almost any context, folks. But in this district? Anything goes. At least one incumbent has lost in three of the last four election cycles. LD11 elected Vin Gopal (D) to the Senate in 2017, infamous author of Murphy’s salacious sex curriculum standards.
In 2021, Republican Assembly candidates swept out Vin Gopal’s longtime Assembly-mates by the narrowest of margins (about a quarter of a percentage point), while Gopal narrowly escaped with his seat intact.
In spite of Gopal’s 2021 close call, it’ll be a challenging but doable task to beat him, owing to his years of building name recognition and self-posturing as a “moderate.” But as we alluded to with his curriculum authorship above, Save Jerseyans, Gopal is no moderate and has taken no shortage of extreme positions and votes.
It’ll be up to the GOP to expose him for what he truly is, and Senate candidate Steve Dnistrian (a former public relations specialist and businessman) is up to the challenge. He’s been quietly but effectively chipping away at Gopal all summer over offshore wind farms, affordability and parental rights, knocking on doors and making media appearances to get the word out.
You can watch my interview with the Senate hopeful below:
In case you missed it…
Check out my @1210WPHT chat with @sdnistrian (R-11), the candidate who could flip control of the N.J. Senate and halt Gov. Phil Murphy's agenda: pic.twitter.com/46xzY7EKRi
— Matt Rooney (@MattRooneyNJ) August 28, 2023
Gopal is shamelessly flip-flopping on wind, confirmation of his precarious position, but what remains to be confirmed is which ways the winds are blowing in LD11.
Dnistria’s incumbent running mates – Assemblywomen Marilyn Piperno and Kim Eulner – are robust campaigners in their own right who ran successfully on parental rights in 2021. While they’ve taken a vote or two in recent memory that’s earned them criticism from conservatives, they did vote against Murphy’s budgets and have remained vocal opponents of the Democrats’ record on crime.
THE BOTTOM LINE- Like LD4, this is a district which could very easily blow either way in November.
A Dnistrian win would likely signal a “wave” of some size and open Republicans up for gains in reach districts like LD16 and LD38. While the issues are undeniably on Dnistrian’s side and insiders tell me he’s gaining rapidly in the polls, for all of the reasons outlined above, it wouldn’t be the biggest shock in the world if we see LD11 keep its current incumbents in place and maintain a split delegation. And if Gopal does manage to hang on, how much does he win by?
If it’s a modest 2-4 point victory, then I think Piperno and Eulner return to the Assembly.
If he wins by a more robust 5+ point margin? The GOP Assemblywomen may experience a long election night of hitting the refresh button on the county clerk results webpage.
The quality of the ground game will matter. Gopal is actively courting the far-Left elements of his state party in search of volunteer labor. The Monmouth GOP organization led by Chairman Shaun Golden boasts arguably has the best grassroots/field operation in the state when they turn it on, and NOBODY is a more skilled vote by mail/early vote tactician than Monmouth County Clerk Christine Hanlon. In a low turnout race like this? A good field/pre-Election Day voting program counts for a whole hell of a lot.
Something else encouraging for Team Red: while redistricting made this district a hair bluer, the NJGOP is seeing positive registration trends in most areas of the state. August 2023’s removal of “inactive” voters from the state voter rolls saw the Democrat in-district advantage fall from 14,171 down to 13,731. Vin Gopal was only reelected in 2021 by 2,682 votes, and Kim Eulner held off the top Democrat Assembly votegetter by 347 votes which is less than the 440 which Democrats lost in August alone.
