Here’s a district we’re not used to talking about in terms of competitiveness, Save Jerseyans. This Monmouth/Ocean-based outpost is one that is usually ROCK solid for Republicans. In fact, it’s one of the reddest districts in the entire state, but when you get under the hood and start poking around, it’s actually very nuanced.
LD30
Trump +35
Ciattarelli +22
Guadagno +17
Senate: Safe GOP > No Change
Assembly: Safe GOP > Likely GOP
LD30 is home to Ocean County’s Lakewood Township and a massive community (100,000+) of Orthodox Jewish residents. Many voters here defer to the guidance and leadership of the “Vaad” (a group of prominent Jewish leaders within the community) when deciding how to vote. If the Vaad endorses a Republican? Lakewood can put up a 3-1 or 4-1 margin for the Republican candidate. If the Vaad endorses a Democrat (as it previously did with Phil Murphy)? You could see a 50-50 split come Election Day which can prove fatal for the GOP ticket.
This dynamic is evidenced in the districtwide Trump, Ciattarelli and Guadagno numbers posted above. The Vaad (and the town) were firmly behind Trump in 2020 (and gave Trump a bigger percentage of the vote than any other municipality in the state that year despite Biden winning big statewide), but Lakewood went narrowly for Murphy in 2017 after the Vaad opted to back Murphy. And as you can see, that means districtwide, the then-Lieutenant Governor fetched only HALF of Trump’s margin.
Fast forward to 2021 when the Vaad again backed Murphy, but this time Ciattarelli managed to win Lakewood by double digits in spite of the endorsement. So while the Vaad is highly influential in how much a Republican manages to win or lose the town by, their endorsement of a Democrat has never meant in the past that Republican numbers districtwide in LD30 were in any serious jeopardy.
But what if Lakewood had one of their own on the ballot, and went all-in for him? It’s an open question, but one we’re seeing unfold right now in real time. Over the summer, LD30 Dems swapped out their Assembly candidates in favor of Lakewood Rabbi Avi Schnall.
While Lakewood currently has representation in the Legislature in the form of Senator Bob Singer, the message they sent to Ocean County GOP Chairman George Gilmore and Monmouth County GOP Chairman Shaun Golden with the Schnall swap is crystal clear: they’re not happy with currently being shut out of the Assembly (the seats of which are currently held by Assemblymen Ned Thomson and Sean Kean, both of Wall Twp., Monmouth County).
I’m told that the move does not have uniform support throughout the Lakewood community, so we’ll have to see if the swap translates to a big Election Day win for Schnall in Lakewood or not. Even if it does, the rest of the district is comprised of massive, deep-red Monmouth County towns like Wall and Howell, and smaller towns like Belmar, Farmingdale, Lake Como and Avon (far less so under this current map then formerly; the new map cut Brielle, Manasquan, Spring Lake and Spring Lake Heights out and moved them to LD10 and also shifted Bradley Beach to LD11; these shifts were necessitated by Lakewood’s explosive population growth, and perhaps not a good thing for Thomson and Kean).
While Monmouth should be (key word: “should”) sufficient to cancel out a potential Democrat surge in Lakewood, that’s far from a foregone conclusion. Here are some numbers to consider
-Let’s start with the more predictable side of this equation. The Monmouth portion of LD30 has 72,500 voters. Lakewood has 60,000.
-Assume we get 30% turnout in Monmouth, and a 2-1 split in favor of the GOP. That means the Assembly GOP walks away with 14,500 votes and the Dems. walk away with 7,250 votes.
-What would it take to overcome this deficit in Lakewood? Start with higher turnout (not unthinkable when the community is engaged). Let’s say 50%, for argument’s sake. That’s a 30,000 voter turnout. Schnall would then need to win just over 62% of the vote to win an Assembly seat. An unthinkable scenario? Certainly not.
Let’s just say we hope that Assemblymen Thomson and Kean are working their butts off to raise more money, drive up turnout (and their plurality) in Monmouth County, and work whatever alliances they may have in Lakewood day-and-night, Save Jerseyans, because this race is no longer a safe bet for the GOP.
It would also be deeply ironic if Republicans score upset wins in places like LD16 and LD38 this year only to be denied a majority or tie in the Assembly by dropping a deep red district seat.
