A quick reminder:
These ratings are NOT predictions. They’re my best educated assumptions about how these battleground legislative districts are situated heading into next week’s General Election.
This is a “low turnout” cycle with a relatively robust volume of early votes. There are mixed variables, too (e.g. a favorable Republican issue environment versus Democrat institutional advantages and the ever-lurking abortion card). Anything other than a “safe” district should be considered competitive… just to varying degrees as elaborated upon below.
Digest the following accordingly:
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LD3 Senate: Lean GOP > Swing
Ed the Trucker is being bombarded by a Democrat advertising blitz down the homestretch of this campaign, and he frankly doesn’t have the funds to adequately respond. This largely rural, trending MAGA-lite district is fairly red (some internal polls over the course of the cycle have supposedly shown a generic “R” up by high single digits), but the Trucker isn’t generic and is weathering a withering, hyper-personal assault based almost entirely on tweets which PRE-DATE Election 2021 (Steve Sweeney’s crack team famously missed it all the last time around). The Trucker is popular with the base (and hey, this IS a base election) and very much in this game, but it could be a close shave in light of the money disparity and the Democrat early vote edge which seems to increase on a daily basis.
LD4 Assembly: Swing > Lean GOP
GOP ticket topper Chris Del Borrello is, as expected, being brutalized on the airwaves by Democrats on the hard side and via “dark money” front groups in the Philadelphia media market. I think it’s starting to permeate voters’ consciousnesses, but I’m keeping that battle “swing” because Democrats started late and the issue environment still benefits Republicans in this slightly-more-red-than-before district, and he also has to contend with a much-maligned “phantom candidate” (a fake conservative planted by South Jersey Dem. operatives and funded by dark money to siphon Republican votes). However, I do think that the GOP Assembly candidates (who haven’t received nearly as much direct incoming political fire) could be positioned to outperform the top of the ticket for that very reason. Remember, Ciattarelli won this district by 5 points two years ago, so any outcome is in play here.
LD8 Senate and Assembly: Likely GOP > Leans GOP
I still feel pretty good about Republicans’ chances of holding onto this suburban Philadelphia district, but Democrats have put a shit ton of money on Philadelphia TV in the last few weeks which is undoubtedly having some impact on the race at ground level. How much? I’m still betting on the Republican ticket, but I’m less sure about it than I was before the air war began. Towns like Evesham and Medford aren’t the reliable Republican strongholds that they were 15 years ago.
LD25 Senate and Assembly: Likely GOP > Safe GOP
Democrats are busily pumping all of their money into electoral flashpoints in South Jersey, the Jersey Shore, and Bergen County. They simply don’t have the bandwidth to open another front and make Senate GOP Leader Tony Bucco’s district another battleground this cycle, and it’s probably far too late in the game for a meaningful 11th hour investment to make much of a dent.
LD30 Assembly: Likely Republican > Lean Republican
I warned Republicans that Avi Schnall’s Lakewood-powered Democrat campaign (and questionable funding) could be problematic, and New Jersey Republicans were undeniably caught flat-footed here in this traditionally deep red district. Republicans could lose Ned Thomson if they don’t step it up and apply some resources immediately. Yesterday. Everything here turns on Lakewood’s Election Day numbers. The Monmouth Co. portion of this district should still be enough to carry Thomson, but Lakewood’s VERY robust vote by mail and early voting numbers have to be causing heartburn for the Wall Township Assemblyman.
LD36 Assembly: Safe Dem> Likely Dem
One of the Assembly seats is likely lost after “poop gate” (click here for background), and the scandal deprived LD36 of much-needed investment early in the fall, but the GOP ticket is up with a cable ad which cleverly downplays the name of Viso (the controversial candidate). This is a working class district which SHOULD be competitive for the Republicans and could be if Election Night is a “best case” wave scenario for the GOP. Consequently, I’m shifting it back into the likely column which translates to “don’t get your hopes up but keep an eye on this one.”
LD39 Senate and Assembly: Likely GOP > Safe GOP
See my analysis for LD25 above. This suburban and relatively affluent district could be competitive in a better year for Democrats, but it’s not on the board this time around with all of the Left’s collective energy forced on defenses (and attempts to retake lost 2021 territory).
