The answer is probably, Save Jerseyans… at least as we presently know them?
On Wednesday, a panel of the U.S. Third District Court of Appeals upheld a trial court injunction which eliminates the state Democrat county lines for 2024. Click here to read the opinion. Meanwhile, a state court declined to exact the same fate upon Republicans’ lines earlier this week, but Appellate Judge Kent Jordan may’ve indicated which way the wind is blowing over the next year.
Judge Kent specifically cited a “very substantial likelihood” that Congressman and Democrat Senate nominee Andy Kim’s lawsuit to end the county line permanently “will succeed on the merits of their First Amendment claims.”
“Even if that were a closer call, however, we would uphold the District Court’s order,” Jordan continued.
During the appellate hearing, Jordan even forcefully pushed back at the Camden County Democrat organization’s constitutional arguments, insisting “nobody is arguing that you can’t endorse, nobody is arguing that you can’t sloganeer, nobody is arguing that you can’t come out hard for somebody that you like and talk down somebody you don’t.”
“The only question is: Are you allowed to do that on a ballot?” the federal jurist mused.
So what happens now?
Democrats won’t have a line for 2024. That much is certain. Republicans will have one. But both parties are already looking ahead to 2025, a gubernatorial cycle, with the likelihood of a dramatically changed landscape. Candidates who have relief heavily up until now on the strength of county committee relationships to propel their candidacies may be in trouble. Candidates with strong grassroots networks and small donor lists may find themselves suddenly with a wind at their backs. Machine counties with woke burbs (like Camden County) may see populist uprisings in the near future. The Democrat Party as a whole is likely to move hard(er) left, while dark money groups stand to gain power in the vacuum.
But there are two interesting possibilities to consider before we assume the lines are officially extinct:
- Assuming the line is dead at the trial level (a safe though uncertain conclusion), would an appeal of the case-in-chief make it to the U.S. Supreme Court? And might SCOTUS look more kindly upon the “right of association” argument advanced by pro-line litigants?
- Or could the state legislature craft a watered-down version of the line capable of passing constitutional muster? And in so doing render the ongoing federal litigation moot?
No one knows for sure.
What we do know is that New Jersey politics is changing, forever and significantly, for good or for ill.
