It’s probably a fool’s errand to assume ANYTHING in this wacky present political climate, Save Jerseyans, but as of Monday morning, it looks like Kamala Harris is the frontrunner to succeed Joe Biden as the Democrat presidential nominee in August.
She’s got Biden, the Clintons, two dozen senators and plenty of state-level Democrats falling in behind her. Until Obama, Pelosi, Jeffries, and the donor class fully commit? Nothing is certain. But she’s got a strong hand to play at the moment, in part because bringing in a new candidate who wouldn’t easily (if at all) inherit the campaign warchest could prove catastrophic with so little time left to go before early voting begins.
Let’s assume Kamala walks out of Chicago as the nominee.
Who will be her #2?
The most logical choice is probably a swing state governor… assuming she can swing it. A Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania) or Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan) could theoretically help reinforce the old “blue wall” that crumbled in 2016 and which remains extremely vulnerable judging by recent polling showing Donald Trump consistently leading in the “Rust Belt.” Vice presidents don’t usually make much of an impact, but it might be foolish to assume a popular governor couldn’t make some difference when his or her home state is a super-tight battleground streetfight. Personal ambition may nevertheless be the obstacle to a high-profile gubernatorial recruitment.
Kamala isn’t a strong candidate, and a battleground state governor might decide that it isn’t worth squandering a shot at 2028 and risk tarnishing his or her brand by linking up with the unpopular Harris.
Where would she look from there?
CBS 2 New York and New Jersey Globe have both reported that New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy’s name is in circulation as a possible Veep candidate. We don’t know how seriously at this point, and as the Globe’s Wildstein noted, we may know by the end of the week because Murphy has a pre-planned international vacation coming up which one would think wouldn’t happen if he’s seriously engaged in a shadow campaign for the vice presidency. I think there’s a good chance what we’re seeing is Murphy World (which started Super PACs before Biden’s decision to seek reelection in the first place, likely hoping that the incumbent wouldn’t) pushing their own guy’s name in order to stay relevant.
The “cons” of a Murphy candidacy: like Kamala, he’s a very far-Left coastal elite from a blue state who therefore arguably adds nothing to the Democrat ticket’s problematic electoral college math since the Garden State remains a “reach” state for the GOP. The meat of the sandwich… is a Michigan factory worker or Pennsylvania waitress more likley to vote Democrat this November because a gazillionaire Leftist from New Jersey (with an Italian villa) who only won reelection by 3-points in a reliably blue state is added to the ticket? Doubtful.
The “pros” of a Murphy candidacy: I’d argue there are few relative to the other options, but he does know how to raise money (he’s an ex-DNC finance chairman, having served between 2006 and 2009 when Democrats did quite well). Murphy could also signal to the party’s base that their ticket is genuinely “progressive,” and it’s clear that the Democrats have some base problems emerging from the last few weeks of intensifying internal party warfare. A final note? You and I know Murphy has been a disaster for New Jersey, but Democrats will argue that a relatively well-spoken, white-haired two-term governor with glasses could give Kamala’s ticket some gravitas which it otherwise lacks because… well, she’s a famous moron!
I still wouldn’t bet on it. Shapiro, Whitmer, North Carolina’s Roy Cooper, Kentucky’s Andy Beshear, and Arizona U.S. Senator Mark Kelly are all undoubtedly further up the short list because of their superior potential to appeal to battleground independent voters. Even Pete Buttigieg checks an extra box (gay) than Murphy, and is younger (only 42).
Yet the only constant right now is unpredictability, folks. I would be suprised to see Phil get called up to the majors, but not shocked. I’m not sure what could shock me at the moment.
