She put him on defense! She won!
That’s what you’re going to hear, non-stop, in the days and possibly weeks to come, Save Jerseyans. You were probably going to hear it no matter how the ABC debate panned out, in part because expectations for Harris were deliberately kept basement-level low and, compared to the disastrous Biden experience, the Media was always going to lavish praise on Kamala like they did throughout the month of August.
It didn’t work in August. Will it work now?
Trump admittedly missed an opportunity for a knockout in Philly. He did play way too much defense. The ethically-bankrupt three-on-one debate format (perhaps understandably) visibly got under his skin, and the former president failed to seize very, very easy opportunities to define the relatively unknown Harris (e.g. why didn’t he bring up taxes on tips and the “Border Czar” debacle and fail to call her out for failing to implement anything she’s now proposing over the past 3 1/2 years? Or explain that it’s TAX DOLLARS that would be paying for prisoners’ transgender surgeries?). His well-delivered closing statement should have been his central, stubborn refrain for the entire preceding 88 minutes.
But he didn’t commit any huge gaffes either, especially since most Americans have already factored his eccentricity into their outlook, and the critical first 30 minutes when most viewers traditionally tune into the debate was also objectively Harris’s weakest segment; for example, right out of the gate, she nervously failed to address a critical question on her co-stewardship of the U.S. economy. She also served up plenty of obnoxious facial gestures akin to Al Gore’s sighing during that fateful 2000 encounter with George W. Bush.
If you want my best educated guess? And I’m assuming you do, because you’re here reading this post?
The Harris campaign team did NOT call for another debate immediately after the Philly encounter ended because this ABC whatever-the-hell-that-was won her the presidency. If it had? She’d wisely sit on her cash pile and draft off tonight for a couple of weeks with the help of her Media allies.
The reality: they know she probably needs more nights like Tuesday night to win.
Trafalgar’s post-debate polling found no change in voter preference. On the other side of the divide, the New York Times noted that undecideds appeared disappointed with Harris’s lack of specifics notwithstanding glowing reviews from the pundit class. While CNN’s post-debate snap survey suggested a Harris victory, Trump GAINED two points on that all-important ‘who’s better on the economy’ question. And check this out:
We’re a very closely decided country (duh) with hard-baked opinions on Trump and many other topics, and the fundamentals at play this year – persistent high inflation, continued global instability, and concerns about open borders and rising crime – remain on the morning after. The big vote beginning now and running through November was never going to be anything other than competitive, and my gut is that Trump more likely and frustratingly missed a chance in Philly to open things up a bit as opposed to blowing the election or anything that dramatic.
To review:
Harris, who clearly absorbed much of her handlers’ pre-programming, had a good night with a major assist from David Muir. She avoided a knockout and appeared lucid, a low bar but a necessary one for her to clear given her past stumbles and Biden’s mid-summer collapse. Her supporters will be pleased that she didn’t melt down like her constantly-beaching boss.
Trump probably fought her to a draw as the dust settles, but he could’ve won. Call that a loss if you like though I’d argue he’s not the one who needed the knockout. Still, what he “lost” was an opportunity it put this away. That’s the part which I find most disappointing given the incredible stakes for our republic and everyone who’d like to see change come to the halls of power. In a sane universe, he’d be up by 15 points.
Ultimately, I think we’ll find ourselves in roughly the same place where we are now in two weeks despite ABC’s best attempt to hobble MAGA.
