Donald Trump is running well ahead of his 2020 AND 2016 margins in New Jersey, folks, according to a brand new survey release from a widely-respected national Republican firm.
On Sunday, Cygnal polling announced that its brand new survey (conducted over October 23rd and 24th among 600 likely voters) found Donald Trump trailing Kamala Harris by 12-points, 52% to 40%. While that’s a significant margin, it’s actually 4-points tighter than 2020 – when Joe Biden won by 16 in New Jersey – and even 2016 when Hillary won the Garden State by 14. If accurate, these results would seem to back up national surveys which show a far closer fight for the popular vote than Republicans have seen in multiple cycles.
No Republican presidential nominee has carried the state since 1988. The close was George W. Bush in 2004 who came within less than 7 points at a time when the state’s voter registration Democrat advantage was far tighter.
“Trump is already performing near his 2020 numbers while Harris is underperforming Biden in 2020 by 5%,” explained Brock McCleary, Cygnal’s vice president of polling. “No surprise Harris is leading, but she shows weakness among a group of Democrats who are female, diverse, working class, and middle-income. Forty percent of these voters have an unfavorable view of Harris.”
Brock also shared his top takeaways from the survey:
Presidential Race: Harris (52%); Trump (40%); undecided (4%); third party (4%).
Senate Race: D-Andy Kim (51%); R-Curtis Bashaw (32%); undecided (14%); third party (3%).
Vote Method: vote in-person on Election Day (55%); vote early in-person (21%); already voted (15%); vote absentee by mail (9%).
Top Issues: inflation and the economy (26%); illegal immigration and border security (20%); threats to democracy (15%); abortion (11%).
Jersey Direction: wrong track (44.5%); right track (44.7%); unsure (10.9%).
Sidenote:
Brock McCleary will join me TONIGHT Sunday 10/27 on The Matt Rooney Show on Philly’s 1210 WPHT, 7-10PM EST. You can listen on the radio, via the Audacy app, or over on YouTube.