Update 10/13/25 @ 10:30 PM EST
The race for New Jersey governor is down to its final three weeks, Save Jerseyans, and its objectively very close… unless Fox News is correct? Four of six recent surveys in our average (see below) show an outright or statistical tie. Only two show the contest to succeed Phil Murphy outside of the margin of error. The consensus is now firmly settled in the single-digit range; the campaign’s respective internals agree.
One of the big differences appears to be what the pollsters are seeing among unaffiliated voters. Fox found Ciattarelli and Sherrill roughly tied among this key group, while Neighborhood Research found Ciattareli ahead with indies by a staggering 19-points.
Remember: polls, at best, are snapshots in time. Differing methodologies also play a role, and the process is all the more challenging in newly-purple New Jersey where there isn’t a large body of reliable polling in recent history due to the state’s historical blue bent.
It’s best to view polls as ONE measure of where the race stands as opposed to a definitive measure of the state of play…
| Polling Org. | Date Range |
Sherrill (D)
|
Ciattarelli (R)
|
Diff. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neighborhood Research | 10/6 – 10/9 | 44% | 44% |
Tie
|
| Rasmussen Reports | 10/8 – 10/9 | 46% | 40% |
Sherrill +6
|
| Quantus Insights | 9/29 – 9/30 | 48% | 46% |
Sherrill +2
|
| Fox News Poll | 9/25 – 9/28 | 50% | 42% |
Sherrill +8
|
| Save Jersey/Valcour | 9/23 – 9/24 | 47% | 45% |
Sherrill +2
|
| Emerson | 9/22 – 9/23 | 43% | 43% |
Tie
|
| Average | 46.33 |
43.33 Sherrill+3.0
|
