CHARLOTTESVILLE, VA — One of New Jersey’s battleground House races is tightening, at least according to one of America’s better-known political prognosticators.
On Thursday, Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia updated his “Crystal Ball” forecast to move Leonard Lance’s 7th Congressional District to “toss up” territory:
“Lance represents a very affluent and highly educated district — NJ-7 is fifth among all 435 districts in median income and is one of the relatively few districts nationally where a majority of residents 25 and older hold at least a four-year college degree. Given Donald Trump’s poor performance in similar districts across the country, it is probably no surprise that NJ-7 voted for Hillary Clinton by a point after Mitt Romney won it by six in 2012.”
–
A strong 2018 Democrat focus on New Jersey, a blue state rich with vulnerable or open GOP seats, plays impacted Sabato’s analysis:
“In the context of generally strong GOP House results across the country in 2016, Lance’s 11-point win over an unheralded challenger was somewhat weak, and Malinowski will be well-funded. The Garden State is a key to Democratic House hopes: NJ-7 joins NJ-11 in the Toss-up column, and the open NJ-2 already Leans Democratic in our ratings. Democrats have seemingly strong candidates in all three districts and they have a good chance to net at least two and quite possibly more seats from the state.”
–
Former State Department official Tom Malinowski is the likely Democrat nominee.
Sabato says NJ-11 (open) is a toss-up, too, while NJ-3 (MacArthur) is likely Republican and NJ-2 (open) is lean Democrat, meaning that Republicans could lose a net of three seats this year assuming Lance goes down and the rest of Sabato’s predictions are accurate.
–
