Never read too much into any one variable. But…
When this cycle began, Save Jerseyans, it was assumed that LD4 (situated down in Gloucester, Camden and Atlantic counties) would be THE battelground of the year. And in many ways it is; the raw spending there will be off-the-charts when the dust finally clears. But a new development on the third party expenditure front strongly suggests that Republicans have succeeded in the very least at significantly expanding the Election 2023 map.
According to the NJ Monitor on Thursday morning, “[t]he Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee announced it would send $50,000 to boost Democrats in the 11th, 16th, and 38th districts in what it said were its first investments into New Jersey this election cycle.”
Save Jersey rated LD11 as a ‘toss up’ when we shared our first round race ratings around Labor Day. We put LD38 and LD16 in the “Lean Democrat” category – places where Republicans could win but the climb was steeper (e.g. Biden carried LD16 by 21-points). The DLCC’s contributions – while modest at this point – signal that rumors of ugly Democrat internals in GOP “reach” districts aren’t just rumors.
If Democrats were feeling good about November? The DLCC would’ve kicked things off in LD2, 3 and 4. They’re not, and I think you can read something into that.
Republicans shouldn’t get comfortable, of course. Democrats’ perceived need to shore up districts doesn’t mean Republicans are poised to flip them. It just means a confluence of events – Menendez’s indictment, inflation, offshore wind, parental rights, overseas conflagrations and Biden fatigue – is pushing the needle in the opposite direction of the majority party.
What to watch for: if DLCC or other groups dramatically ramp up spending in a place like LD16 or LD38 OR if you see Democrats start to plop cash into a place like LD36 which has no business being competitive at the moment notwithstanding plenty of favorable factors at the ground level.
