Is New Hampshire in play?
Maybe, Save Jerseyans, if the latest state polling ahead of the first-in-the-nation vote on January 23rd is to be believed. Former President Donald Trump’s lead in the RCP average is down to < 14% from around 27-points right before the holiday season kicked off. That’s admittedly big. Meanwhile, Chris Christie has continued to poll in the low-teens in 7 of the last 8 polls going back to mid-November. At the moment, if the RCP average is accurate, Haley’s lead over Christie is actually LARGER than Trump’s advantage over the former South Carolina governor and his ex-U.N. ambassador.
Where Christie goes if he can’t overcome expectations in the Granite State – where he’s devoted much of his time – is hard to say.
He could stay in (at least on paper), hope the field contracts further (DeSantis and Ramawamy aren’t catching fire), and attempt to nab some delegates (and legacy media limelight) headed into the national convention. Ironically, his own state’s delegation just got gutted (down to 9) after a falling out with the RNC. He’s barely registering in Iowa and South Carolina. But when has a glaring lack of popularity and a corresponding mandate ever dissuaded him before? Saying nasty stuff about his party and its de facto leader (Trump) earns him plenty of air time, so Christie Inc. might not see a need to let up.
Christie could also bow out and try to negotiate for influence, but his best chance to do that might be quickly passing him by. Haley’s Super PAC is already targeting him with ads urging him to drop (operating under the theory that he’s cutting into the “Not Trump” vote in New Hampshire). Governor Sununu went as far as telling an interviewer that voting for his former political ally in the primary is a “wasted vote.” Ouch.
If – and this is a big if, of course – New Hampshire is close and Christie is more than Haley’s hypothetical margin of defeat? It might be too late to cobble together an impactful and fruitful alliance.
We’ll know for sure in two weeks.
