Bad pun, I know. But this is serious business, Save Jerseyans.
In case you missed it today, Fairleigh Dickinson University’s pollsters released the results of their latest public survey; notably, they found that “Menendez, running for his second full term in November, would win 43 percent against both Kyrillos and Little, who would both win 31 percent, according to the PublicMind poll of 800 registered voters.”
You can read the complete FDU polling report here.
Nothing really newsworthy here, folks. We’ve known that Bob Menendez is vulnerable. He’s an empty suit with a machine past. It’s a shame that neither of these are automatic disqualifiers for a politician. Indeed, finding a candidate with enough money, name recognition and statewide political clout to overcome this state’s unfortunate Democrat-tilt is the real (and seemingly never-ending) challenge for the NJGOP.
The Kyrillos expoloratory committee is naturally adopting a positive outlook. It shared the following memo with Save Jersey:
To: Kyrillos for Senate Exploratory Committee
From: Adam Geller
Re: FDU poll
The takeaway from today’s FDU poll is Bob Menendez is very vulnerable and this is a real opportunity for a good candidate to defeat him. Any incumbent under 50% is in trouble and Menendez is under 45%, which means he is in major trouble. That is Jon Corzine territory.
Joe Kyrillos, even though not yet a candidate, would make a very strong opponent for Menendez because of his personal and fundraising base and his consistently strong fiscally conservative voting record in New Jersey.
I would also note that only 28% of voters think the country is headed in the right direction. That is a terrible number for an incumbent arguing that he ought to be re-elected.
The bottom line of this poll is that if Joe Kyrillos were to jump into this race, Bob Menendez is in serious trouble.
I can’t go toe-to-toe with the venerable Adam Geller’s polling prowess, Save Jerseyans. The man knows his business (he was Governor Christie’s numbers man in 2009).
That said, it’s worth pointing out how Jon Corzine was up for re-election in 2009… an “off” year in the sense that there weren’t any federal elections. With President Obama headlining the Democrat column in 2012, Hudson Bob will have an infinitely easier time turning out his base in Democrat strongholds than Corzine did without the benefit of a media-consuming presidential contest. Democrats still enjoy a large registration advantage in New Jersey, too.
But forget about November for a moment. Let’s look at June. Frankly, the biggest (and worst news) for in this latest poll is Senator Kyrillos’s uncomfortable statistical proximity to Tea Party darling Anna Little. Their respective name ID outside of their regions is virtually nonexistent; sure, this can be remedied in time with enough money. Kyrillos has some good people around him.
However, before we even cross that bridge, the NJGOP may be looking at a full-on, Christie v. Longan ’09-style primary for the right to take on Menendez in November. I like the Senator’s chances. The problem is that he may have to work much harder than anticipated or risk being “Schundlered.” Yeah, I made that word up.
Keep it here for updates.
Anna's Army is alive and well. She's got a real shot. The Establishment underestimates her at their own peril.
We'll see. Could be an interesting spring; running a U.S. Senate race is a little different than a House race, too. You need at least some money to cover 21 counties. Little hit the pavement but raised virtually nothing in 2010.
Anna Little has no shot. Anyone who pays attention, knows she is over.
I fully believe that Joe Kyrillos will be better prepared and able to organize a state wide campaign. Anna Little's strong point was a good retail ground game (which still had some clear mistakes). This, however, even multiplied, won't be enough. Senator Kyrillos will be far better able to run a whole sale/air-war campaign. That being said, they'd both be alot better than what we have.
I think that Anna has some good points. They havent been rasing money in 2010-2011. Hopefully something good comes out of this.
The only way New Jersey will ever get back to being prosperous, Is to pass a law requiring all voters to present a Photo I'D. Why not Unions have to show an ID when they vote for new leadership.
The party can't afford to be fractured at all in this race and needs to unify strongly behind the best candidate with the best chance to beat Menendez. For a multitude of reasons that candidate is Joe Kyrillos.
Wait! A 12 point lead is vulnerable? That's a joke, right? Any politician would a take a 12 point lead without doing any campaigning yet…wouldn't you say? LOL….
The FDU poll results would have been the same for Menendez vs. Matt Rooney or Menendez vs Brian McGovern. Neither Kyrillos or Little have enough statewide name regonition at this point to register above a generic Republican in a head to head with Menendez.
Menendez is vulnerable. His numbers are weak. I would like to see FDU or Patrick Murray poll statewide for an unnamed Democrat vs. an unnamed Republican. I'd bet that the unnamed D outperforms Menendez's results from this poll.
This will not be a Christie vs Lonegan type of primary. Little can't raise the kind of money Lonegan raised and there are no matching funds in a federal race.
The veterans of Anna's Army have moved on, many under "friendly fire, " so she has to build a new organization.
If she gets on the primary ballot, she won't get 20% of the vote and she won't raise more than $100K.
The only people taking her seriously at this point are media types that don't know better.
Anna should have kept her sites on Pallone in the 6th district. It's doubtful that Diane Gooch will run.
How about Michael Doherty? He has the whole Ron Paul network that placed Rand Paul over the top in Kentucky. He is my choice if he decides to run. I feel that if Krillos is the nominee, we may have a slight chance, maybe even with Little too, but I honestly am not excited about either of their candidates, like I am for Doherty!
Diane Gooch didn't take Anna seriously. Ask Jamestown how that worked out.
In 2008, Frank Lautenberg's reelect was at 24% in a Rutgers-Eagleton poll.
Don't read too much into that number. It's all about turnout, money and name identification.
It's conventional wisdom that an incumbent below 50% is "vulnerable." Yes, that could mean a lot of things. What it tells me is that a great GOP candidate COULD beat Senator Menendez with luck/help (e.g. a Mitt Romney 10pt+ win in November).
Likely? No. But stranger stuff happens every day. This is New Jersey!
I agree with everything you've said, Greg. But then again, I never thought Mike Castle would lose a DE primary to a witch lacking any real world experience outside of political activism.
I asked Doherty about it last month; got a non-answer:
https://savejersey.com/2011/12/doherty-takes-fair-…
Please Little or Kyrillos ? Neither one will come near Senator Menendez. My head is spinning from all the spin. Straight up bet for anyone here: I will take Senator Menendez, you take whichever Republican —Conservative, RINO, neo-con, paleo-con—who runs against Senator Menendez. If Senator Menendez wins, you donate $100 to the ACLU-NJ. If your Republican candidate wins, I will donate $100 to the conservative org of your choice. Who's in?
Kyrillos does? He has the personality of sandpaper and the name recognition of a freshman dog catcher. Menendez is as good as reelected.
I wouldn't take the bet, Joey. It's an uphill climb for any NJ Republican in 2012… the only wild card is how well Obama does in NJ. Will he win by 15 points? Or 5? That could make the difference if the NJGOP nominates a "strong" candidate.
It is fascinating Rullo came in 3rd in a recent Tea Party straw poll, yet Kyrillos did not even place. It is also fascinating that Rullo is very popular in in central to south Jersey, yet he is not mentioned in this poll. It is also fascinating that Rullo is a federally registered candidate, yet was not included in this poll. He is the only candidate with a scheduled fundraiser with a headquarters, and has made the choice to run all the way in the primary regardless of conventions. No matter how much he is ignored selected media outlets cover him like he is running in the general. His platform is very conservative businessman and he has my vote.
Bob Menendez is 110% safe. The nominee could be Froofie the Dog for all we care, the outcome would be no better or worse. For the record, if my choices were between Anna Little and Froofie the Dog, I would vote for Froofie the Dog.
Well said, for the most part, but don't you feel you're oversimplifying?
three months later and his name recognition still stinks. you called it, matt.
don't undersell sandpaper.
Who came in 1st and 2nd??
I think that it's an unfortate fact that Republicans in NJ typically don't know what they are doing when it comes to federal elections. Fundraising and money making is not really as easy as it may seem. Just saying…..
Come on the show, Joe Kyrillos. We really do not want Che Menendez for 6 more years. 1 million NJ gun owners are awaiting to hear from you. We are all legal law abiding registered voters. What more could you ask for?
http://gunforhireblog.tumblr.com/post/27989971652…
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