According to new internal polling released by the Kyrillos campaign earlier today, Bob Menendez still fails to break through that 50 percent ceiling he has been struggling with since this campaign season began, and Joe Kyrillos is now within striking distance of the incumbent US Senator for the first time.
The results show that Menendez would receive 45 percent to Kyrillos’s 41 percent with 14 percent still undecided. To break it down further, 11 percent are “probably” voting for Hudson Bob while 12 percent are “probably” voting for Kyrillos.
While these numbers are great for the Kyrillos campaign and reflect a continuing trend towards closing the gap with Menendez, I have to be a bit weary of the results. Campaigns often hesitate to release internal polling numbers because they often tend to skew outcomes in favor of the person who paid for them, which would be why this poll shows a bit more support of Kyrillos than any of the totally independent polls out there.
However, this poll, which was done by Magellan Strategies, is consistent with partisan samplings from other polls, with supporters of President Obama’s election in 2008 and Democrats in general out representing Republicans considerably. The poll is also consistent with other, public polls in that it shows Menendez unable to break free of a 50 percent support level. No matter what poll you read, internal or otherwise, Menendez is stuck in the 40s and his approval gap is in the negative, even if only slightly so. No matter how you look at it, Menendez is not going to have to fight hard and really spend that war chest, because Kyrillos is clearly gaining ground.
You can read the entire poll here, including all of its method and sampling information.