By Matt Rooney | The Save Jersey Blog
A new Stockton poll suggests more movement in Tom MacArthur’s direction, Save Jerseyans, riding a 5-point lead over Aimee Belgard in NJ-03.
MacArthur leads 46% to 41% with 8% undecided and 5% passing on both the Republican and Democrat candidates. He’s up 6-points with leaners included. The last Stockton poll from September 15th had the pair tied at 42%.
Interestingly, it’s weak support among Democrats that’s holding Belgard back; she’s winning only 75% of Democrats whereas MacArthur is supported by 84% of Republicans. MacArthur’s 5-point lead among unaffiliated voters mirrors his overall margin.
The only potentially bad news for Republicans?
Stockton claims he’s losing in the bluer, Burlington portion of the district by 8-points, 45% to 37% (where she is a sitting freeholder), while winning in reliably red Ocean County by 22-points (52% to 30%). That’s a fine result for MacArthur and reassuring news for Ocean GOP Freeholder Director Joe Vicari but also a challenging finding for Burlington’s GOP’ers who are fighting a fierce battle to hold their slim 3-2 freeholder board majority through the retention of not one but two open seats.
Their best hope? Positive polling for MacArthur drive, in part, by dramatically-outsized GOP federal-level spending.
The Stockton poll was conducted between Octover 25th and 28th; the poll’s margin of error is 3.9-points.
Another recent poll from Monmouth was stronger, showing MacArthur up by 10 in the district.