Stockton Poll: MacArthur up overall but losing Burlco

By Matt Rooney | The Save Jersey Blog

macarthur poll
MacArthur talks to members of the VFW (District 12) on Tuesday evening.

A new Stockton poll suggests more movement in Tom MacArthur’s direction, Save Jerseyans, riding a 5-point lead over Aimee Belgard in NJ-03.

MacArthur leads 46% to 41% with 8% undecided and 5% passing on both the Republican and Democrat candidates. He’s up 6-points with leaners included. The last Stockton poll from September 15th had the pair tied at 42%. 

Interestingly, it’s weak support among Democrats that’s holding Belgard back; she’s winning only 75% of Democrats whereas MacArthur is supported by 84% of Republicans. MacArthur’s 5-point lead among unaffiliated voters mirrors his overall margin.

The only potentially bad news for Republicans? 

Stockton claims he’s losing in the bluer, Burlington portion of the district by 8-points, 45% to 37% (where she is a sitting freeholder), while winning in reliably red Ocean County by 22-points (52% to 30%). That’s a fine result for MacArthur and reassuring news for Ocean GOP Freeholder Director Joe Vicari but also a challenging finding for Burlington’s GOP’ers who are fighting a fierce battle to hold their slim 3-2 freeholder board majority through the retention of not one but two open seats.

Their best hope? Positive polling for MacArthur drive, in part, by dramatically-outsized GOP federal-level spending.

The Stockton poll was conducted between Octover 25th and 28th; the poll’s margin of error is 3.9-points.

Another recent poll from Monmouth was stronger, showing MacArthur up by 10 in the district.

6 thoughts on “Stockton Poll: MacArthur up overall but losing Burlco

  1. QUOTE ” 5% passing on both the Republican and Democrat candidates.” Outlier candidates rarely get that many actual votes. So, I don’t believe in the end, that will hold true because voters will simply refuse to vote for someone who has no chance of winning. I suspect they will realize they have the power to decide a close election and pull one way or another. And, with the drag on Aimee from Obama, they most likely will split towards MacArthur. One man’s opinion only.

  2. Do u really think that the 30,000 republics/fiscal conservatives are really going to vote for Macarthur when they received pennies on the dollar from their flood ins. Claims AND they are SUING their insurance company. Also the heckler that got to CC IS NOT THE FIRST AND CERTAINLY WONT BE THE LAST. I WILL TELL U THIS. IF McArthur loses this race CC won’t be able to win a councilman seat let alone the presidential election if he loses the Congressional seat in the most republican county in the state. Sweating out the CD3 race is embarrassing enough. And I am a fiscal conservative who owns my own business who worshipped CC before sandy.

  3. MACARTHUR HAS OTHER PROBLEMS, as well… Someone asked why we waited to file the complaint when we knew since June?

    Two answers – one, the OPRA delay on certain evidence, and, more importantly, two, because we wanted our dialogue to be about what we offer, not why they are a poor choice…don’t get me wrong, there are an ABUNDANCE of reasons NOT to vote for these two puppets, but we wanted to illustrate why you SHOULD vote for us, first.

    Now, with only days to go, we demonstrate once again that this clown belongs nowhere near YOUR Congressional Seat…but Aimee’s no better – woefully under-prepared on almost every issue – and unwilling to take responsibility for the actions in her own campaign.

    I didn’t need a “beard” to have Tom charged – look who signed the complaint.

    You bet.…/Complaint-Tom-MacArthur-voter-Fraud

    What will really benefit the district in all this? It opens a whole can of worms on other issues with the Burlington and Ocean County corrupt leadership – because they assuredly knew about this before the primary…because I TOLD THEM, and SHOWED THEM, and WARNED THEM.

    Guess what that means?

    That means they can be painted as accessories before the fact. These charges
    are felonies.

    “Have a nice day!”

  4. Hey PISS up a rope LaVergne. I mean you are now reduced to more BLOGGING crap? You Fred LaVergne are the clown as well as your brother who obviously has no class and is a convicted felon. Before you keep spouting your crap and lies realize you have been made a fool of by so many people online AND in person. Oh yes, we all talk so all your hate and bitterness against Tom is because you WISH you had the support he does. You are not even qualified to shine his shoes

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