“This is not the twenty-something point lead that some polls have been showing, but it is still formidable. While Guadagno may have an opportunity to break through, the fact that Murphy’s support is over 50 percent makes that task very difficult,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute, following the release of his institution’s first general election poll of the 2017 cycle.
Monmouth’s poll of 452 likely voters found Phil Murphy leading Kim Guadagno by 14-points, 51% to 37%, with five weeks left to go before New Jersey votes.
The top challenge for Guadagno? According to the Monmouth numbers, it might be corralling the Republican base. 91% of self-identified Democrats support Murphy while only 79% of self-identified Republicans are backing Guadagno.
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Murray’s July poll of registered voters reported Murphy up by 27-points.
A recently released Emerson likely voter survey pegged Murphy’s margin at 11-points.