There are five weeks left to go before New Jersey votes for Chris Christie’s successor, and a new poll suggests the race could be a little less daunting for Guadagno than first believed.
Monday’s Emerson College poll results report Phil Murphy (D-Goldman Sachs) leading Republican Kim Guadagno (R-Monmouth Beach) by 11 points, 46% to 35%, while 12% remained undecided in the New Jersey gubernatorial contest. The automated poll of 300 “somewhat and very likely registered voters” has a margin of error +/- 5.6 percentage points.
There have only been two other publicly-released “likely” voter polls this cycle; those surveys reported Guadagno trailing by 19 and 25 points, respectively.
Guadagno pollster Adam Geller, pollster for the Trump campaign in its Midwestern battlegrounds, recently advised voters to take public polls results with a grain of salt (or an entire shaker).
“We know the public polls were wrong in the 2016 Presidential race,” opined Geller who also named Chris Christie among his high profile clients. “We know the public polls were wrong on Brexit. They were wrong in the Georgia congressional special. They were wrong in the 2009 New Jersey Gubernatorial election. This maintains a long tradition of high profile misses in the public polling – as evidenced by the doozy of an article from 1993 – when the public polls were wrong on that election too. So I guess my question is, why on earth is anyone still paying any attention to them? (The article is in the comments).”
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