His current client — Lt. Governor Kim Guadagno (R-Monmouth Beach) — is trailing rival Phil Murphy (D-Goldman Sachs) by 25-points according to the latest public survey of “likely” voters for this year’s gubernatorial election. In fact, every poll released in recent months projected a 20-something Murphy advantage.
Adam Geller says you should take it all with a grain of salt.
“We know the public polls were wrong in the 2016 Presidential race,” opined the New Jersey Republican professional noted for correctly detecting movement in key battleground states in his capacity as a Trump campaign pollster. “We know the public polls were wrong on Brexit. They were wrong in the Georgia congressional special. They were wrong in the 2009 New Jersey Gubernatorial election. This maintains a long tradition of high profile misses in the public polling – as evidenced by the doozy of an article from 1993 – when the public polls were wrong on that election too. So I guess my question is, why on earth is anyone still paying any attention to them? (The article is in the comments)”
The article to which Geller was referring recalls how, back in 1993, The Star-Ledger, The New York Times, the Record of Hackensack, and Rutgers-Eagleton all showed Jim Florio beating Christine Todd Whitman by around eight points (the Asbury Park Press posted a 38-38 tie with 22% undecided) heading into election day.
Whitman obviously triumphed when the votes were actually counted.
Geller’s own internal polling had Guadagno down around 9-points heading into August.
The 2017 race for governor entered into a new phase this week as the RGA began airing anti-Murphy ads on New York metro television and sources confirmed former President Barack Obama intended to fund raise for the Democrat candidate, his former ambassador to Germany.